TLDR:
- DJT stock surged over 240% in five weeks, driven by bets on Trump’s potential election victory
- Stock rose 21% on Monday and another 11% in premarket Tuesday following MSG rally
- Company reported only $837,000 in Q2 revenue with $16.4 million net loss
- Trump holds 60% stake worth approximately $5.7 billion at current valuation
- Analysts warn stock could plummet to zero if Trump loses election
Trump Media & Technology Group’s stock (DJT) continues its remarkable price surge, reaching its highest levels since June 2024, despite posting minimal revenue figures.
The company’s shares have climbed about 240% from September lows, with Monday alone seeing a 21% increase followed by an 11% rise in Tuesday’s premarket trading.
The stock’s movement appears largely disconnected from traditional business metrics. In its second quarter results, the company reported revenue of just $837,000, alongside a net loss of $16.4 million. Half of these losses were attributed to expenses related to the company’s SPAC deal. The company also experienced a leadership change, with its COO stepping down in September.
Trading activity suggests investors are treating DJT stock as a proxy for Donald Trump’s presidential campaign rather than evaluating it on business fundamentals. The recent rally gained momentum following Trump’s weekend appearance at Madison Square Garden, where he drew a crowd of notable supporters including Elon Musk, UFC president Dana White, and House Speaker Mike Johnson.
The correlation between political developments and stock performance has become increasingly apparent. Betting markets and prediction sites such as Polymarket, PredictIt, and Kalshi currently show Trump’s chances ahead of Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris, though national polls indicate a tight race, particularly in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Other Trump-related stocks have shown similar patterns. Conservative video platform Rumble (RUM) saw a 15% increase on Monday with an additional 6% rise early Tuesday. However, mobile advertising software company Phunware (PHUN) experienced contrasting results, dropping 11% in premarket trading after closing flat on Monday.
The former president maintains approximately 60% ownership in DJT. With shares trading above $47, Trump Media’s market capitalization has reached about $9.5 billion, making Trump’s stake worth roughly $5.7 billion. This valuation comes despite Trump’s earlier removal from major social media platforms following January 6, 2021, though he has since been reinstated on these platforms.
Market analysts and investors have expressed mixed views about the stock’s future. Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, described it as “a binary bet on the election” during an appearance on Yahoo Finance’s Catalysts show. Tuttle, who owns put options on the stock, suggested that even if Trump wins, the share price might decline following the “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trading pattern.
The stock’s recent performance marks a recovery from earlier struggles. DJT had traded at its lowest levels since the company’s debut following its lockup period expiration last month. The share price had also faced pressure in early September when polling showed Harris slightly ahead.
Truth Social, the company’s main product, continues to compete with established social media platforms. Trump launched the platform after losing access to major social media apps, though he has since returned to X (formerly Twitter) in August 2024.
The stock remains highly volatile, with trading patterns closely following political developments rather than company performance. The sharp contrast between the company’s current market valuation and its modest revenue figures has led some market observers to question the sustainability of the current stock price
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