TLDR
- TON is trading in a bullish pennant pattern, testing resistance at $3.50
- Whale activity shows 84% spike in large transactions reaching $6.12 billion
- $999K liquidation cluster at $3.66 could fuel a breakout rally
- Support established around $3.21, near the lower Bollinger Band
- Technical indicators showing a pause in momentum with RSI at 47.64
Toncoin (TON) is approaching a critical juncture as the cryptocurrency tests a key resistance level at $3.50 following a three-day rally that began on May 8. The token is currently trading at around $3.29, showing signs of consolidation after its recent upward movement.
The price action has formed a bullish pennant pattern, which typically signals a potential continuation of the current uptrend. However, momentum appears to be slowing as TON bulls struggle to break above the $3.50 resistance zone.
On-chain data presents an interesting contrast to the price stagnation. Large transactions have spiked by 84%, reaching a total of $6.12 billion. This surge in activity often indicates whale or institutional involvement, which can precede major price movements.
These large players may be positioning themselves for an anticipated breakout, accumulating TON while the price consolidates below resistance.
Liquidation Data Points to Potential Catalyst
Adding to the bullish case is a significant liquidation cluster identified at the $3.66 level. According to Coinglass data, over $999,000 in liquidations are concentrated at this price point.
This cluster sits just above the current resistance and could act as a price magnet if TON manages to break above $3.50. A move past this level might trigger a cascade of forced liquidations as short positions are closed, potentially accelerating any upward movement.
Traders caught in short positions would need to buy back TON, adding further buying pressure to a possible rally.
Technical Picture Shows Mixed Signals
The technical indicators present a more nuanced picture of TON’s current state. The 4-hour chart shows TON trading near the midline of the Bollinger Bands, with support building around $3.21.
This support level aligns with both the lower Bollinger Band and the 100-period simple moving average (SMA), suggesting it could serve as a short-term floor for prices.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pulled back from overbought territory and now sits at 47.64. This decline indicates that buying pressure has cooled following the recent rally.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows the MACD line still above the signal line, but with a flattening histogram. This suggests waning momentum and points to potential sideways action unless a new catalyst emerges.
While TON remains above both the 100 and 200-period SMAs—generally considered a bullish signal—the short-term momentum has clearly stalled.
Volume has also decreased compared to the early-May rally, which could limit volatility in the near term. A new surge in buying interest would likely need to be supported by positive fundamental news or a broader market uptrend.
For TON bulls, the immediate goal is a strong close above the $3.50 resistance level. If achieved, attention will shift to the $3.66 area as the next target, where the large liquidation cluster resides.
The combination of the bullish pennant formation, whale accumulation, and leverage liquidation points to potential upside. However, until a breakout materializes, consolidation may continue.
On the downside, traders should watch the $3.21 support level closely. A break below this point could expose the $3.10 level, which coincides with the 200-period SMA.
With price action tightening and indicators showing mixed signals, Toncoin appears to be at a decision point. The next few days could determine whether TON can break through resistance or needs more time to build momentum for its next move.
The most recent data shows TON trading at $3.29, holding above key technical support while testing the upper bounds of its consolidation range.
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