TLDR:
- Trump maintains 66% win probability according to prediction markets
- Bitcoin trades at $67K amid election-related market movements
- Options traders showing strong bullish sentiment with 2:1 call/put ratio
- Trump-linked assets seeing major gains: TMTG up 141%, meme coins rising
- Both Trump and Harris showing pro-crypto stances ahead of election
The cryptocurrency markets are showing increased activity as multiple forecasting platforms point to Donald Trump taking a strong lead in the upcoming presidential election.
Recent data from leading prediction markets paints a clear picture of Trump’s position in the race. Polymarket, a major forecasting platform, shows Trump with a 66.1% chance of victory, while Vice President Kamala Harris trails at 33.9%.
These numbers aren’t isolated to a single source. The Economist’s model gives Trump a 54% chance of winning, while Silver Bulletin and FiveThirtyEight show similar probabilities at 53.3% and 52.9% respectively. RealClearPolitics goes even further, suggesting a 61.3% likelihood of a Trump victory.
The swing state predictions are particularly telling. According to Polymarket’s state-by-state breakdown, Trump leads in all six key battleground states. The probabilities show him ahead in Arizona with 73%, Georgia at 74%, Nevada with 64%, Pennsylvania showing 62%, Wisconsin at 58%, and Michigan at 53%.
Financial analyst Jim Bianco of Bianco Research has tracked the correlation between these predictions and Bitcoin’s price movements. “We’re seeing a clear pattern emerge as Trump’s numbers rise,” Bianco noted in his recent analysis.
The cryptocurrency options market reflects this optimistic outlook. Current trading patterns show that options traders are pricing in a 20% chance that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 by late November. This represents a notably bullish stance from market participants.
Data from Deribit, the largest crypto derivatives exchange, reveals an interesting trend. Call options, which bet on price increases, are showing nearly twice the Open Interest compared to put options for contracts expiring around election day on November 8.
The market’s put/call ratio currently sits at 0.55, a number that typically indicates strong bullish sentiment. For context, any ratio below 1.0 suggests traders are more focused on potential upside than downside risks.
Trump-associated assets have seen remarkable growth during this period. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp has experienced a dramatic increase, with its stock price jumping from $16.16 to $38.95 this month alone, marking a 141.02% gain.
The surge isn’t limited to traditional stocks. The cryptocurrency sector has seen similar movements in Trump-themed assets, with the MAGA meme coin posting a 29.32% increase over the same period.
However, the broader cryptocurrency market shows more varied results. While Bitcoin remains strong, the altcoin market has actually decreased in dominance, falling from 10.27% to 9.26% over the past month.
Among the top cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, USDC, Dogecoin, and Tron have posted gains, while others have seen declines. Ethereum, for instance, has experienced considerable volatility, currently trading around $2,500 after reaching peaks above $2,700 earlier in the month.
Market observers note that both presidential candidates have shown support for cryptocurrency. While Trump has historically made positive statements about Bitcoin, Harris has recently adopted an increasingly crypto-friendly stance in her campaign messaging.
The options market seems to be betting on positive outcomes regardless of the winner. However, the clear correlation between Trump’s rising odds and Bitcoin’s price movements suggests traders are particularly optimistic about a Trump victory scenario.
At press time, prediction markets continue to show Trump maintaining his lead, while Bitcoin holds steady in the high $60,000 range. Market participants appear to be closely monitoring both election forecasts and price movements as November approaches.
Stay Ahead of the Market with Benzinga Pro!
Want to trade like a pro? Benzinga Pro gives you the edge you need in today's fast-paced markets. Get real-time news, exclusive insights, and powerful tools trusted by professional traders:- Breaking market-moving stories before they hit mainstream media
- Live audio squawk for hands-free market updates
- Advanced stock scanner to spot promising trades
- Expert trade ideas and on-demand support