TLDR
- Alphabet (GOOGL) stock closed at $334.76 on Oct. 21, down 2% on the day.
- Options data points to a 5% move after the Oct. 28 earnings report.
- GOOGL has topped the options-implied move in five of its past eight reports.
- The stock rose in the two weeks after three of the last four reports.
- Capex of about $44 billion last quarter remains the main worry.
Alphabet (GOOGL) stock closed at $334.76 on Oct. 21, down $5.52, or 2%. The day’s range ran from $330.38 to $337.27.
The stock is up about 6% to 7% this year. It still sits well below its 52-week high of $408.61.
Earnings land on Oct. 28 after the market close. Options data compiled by Bloomberg points to a 5% move.
Traders have often guessed too low. Alphabet has topped the options-implied move in five of its past eight reports.
The July 22 report was a rough one. The stock fell 12% when options pointed to a 5% move.
April 29 went the other way. The stock jumped 16% against an implied move of 5%.
What the Past Reports Show
Not every report brought a big swing. On Feb. 4, the stock dropped 1% against an expected 5% move.
On Oct. 29, 2025, it gained 12% versus a 6% implied move. The July 23, 2025 report saw a 6% rise, right in line with expectations.
Three older reports fell short of the implied move. One of them, in February 2025, showed a 0.3% decline.
The two-week view after reports leans positive. Alphabet stock rose 5% after the second quarter of 2026 and 14% after the first.
It fell 9% after the fourth quarter of 2025 and rose 4% after the third. That makes three gains in the past four reports.
Cloud Growth and Spending
Second-quarter revenue came in at $119 billion. Google advertising made up 68% of it.
Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to more than $24 billion. Enterprise AI solutions and infrastructure drove the gain.
Spending is the flip side. Capital expenditures hit about $44 billion, with 60% going to servers and 40% to data centers and networking.
Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms plan to spend more than $700 billion combined this year. Investors have liked the growth, but capex has weighed on the stock now and then.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and ASML Holding have already reported earnings. Both spoke of steady demand.
Alphabet’s market cap stands at $4.09 trillion. The stock slipped to $334.76 on Oct. 21 ahead of the Oct. 28 report.
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