TLDR
- AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock rose 13.5% to $36.70 in early trading Monday ahead of Q3 results.
- About 35% of the float is sold short, roughly 10 times a typical stock.
- Wall Street expects a $140 million operating loss on $46 million in sales.
- Space stocks rallied after NASA announced awards to other companies.
- Analysts see $1.7 billion in 2028 sales if the satellite network goes live.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) stock was climbing Monday morning, up 13.5% at $36.70 in early trading. The move came just hours before the company’s third-quarter report, due after the close.
Even with the jump, the stock sits about 70% below its 52-week high of more than $130. That peak came in May, just before the June SpaceX IPO.
Space stocks got a lift over the weekend. NASA announced awards for several companies, including SpaceX, Voyager Technologies, Firefly Aerospace and Blue Origin.
Voyager was up about 14% and Firefly about 15%. AST was not named in the awards.
The broader market helped too. The S&P 500 gained 2.1% and the Dow rose 1.7%.
Short Sellers May Be Heading for the Door
There is also a positioning story. About 35% of AST’s tradable stock is sold short, according to FactSet.
Short sellers bet on a drop by selling borrowed stock and buying it back later. Some buy early before big events to avoid a sting, which can push the price up.
What Wall Street Wants to See
Analysts expect an operating loss of about $140 million on sales of $46 million. Investors also want a date for when the satellite network will be ready for service.
The company hit trouble this year after setbacks at launch supplier Blue Origin. Management said Blue Origin made progress after its May anomaly but is not counting on it in the numbers.
Investors are hoping for a service rollout in 2027. Beta service is targeted for later in 2026, and commercial service could start with as few as 45 satellites.
The Numbers Behind the Story
In the second quarter, AST reported revenue of $31.5 million, up more than 100% from the prior quarter. Management kept its full-year revenue forecast of $150 million to $200 million.
The backlog stood at $1.3 billion. Most of it comes from non-government deals, but the newest additions were mostly government contracts.
AST held about $3.7 billion in cash after a July sale of $1.15 billion in convertible notes. Capital spending hit $610 million in the second quarter, and the company guided to $350 million to $425 million for the third.
The company also plans its own rocket, called Blacklift. It will be reusable, weigh 20 tons and carry up to five BlueBird satellites per launch.
AST signed a deal with Firefly for engines for the first three Blacklift rockets. The upfront payment tied to the license is about $800 million, including $400 million in cash plus 10 million to 14 million Class A shares.
Management has said it has more than 60 mobile network operator partners covering over 3 billion subscribers. AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone and Rakuten are on the list.
Analysts see 2028 sales of $1.7 billion and an operating profit of $370 million. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, six rate it Strong Buy, eight Hold and one Strong Sell, with an average price target of $77.82.
The company is valued at about $9.7 billion, and the stock is roughly flat for the year. AST reports its third-quarter results Monday afternoon.
