TLDR
- Bitcoin price could reach cycle top around October 11, 2025, based on historical cycle patterns
- Bitcoin recently built bullish momentum after hitting all-time high of $108,786 early in the year
- The $300K call option expiring June 26 is the second-most popular bet in Deribit’s options market
- Over 5,000 contracts are active in the June $300K call with notional open interest of $484 million
- Senator Cynthia Lummis expressed support for the BITCOIN Act as a solution to national debt
Bitcoin has shown renewed strength after setting an all-time high of $108,786 earlier this year. Many investors wonder when the premier cryptocurrency might reach its peak in the current market cycle.
Crypto analyst Brett recently shared research examining Bitcoin’s price structure across multiple market cycles. His analysis focuses on days elapsed from cycle bottoms to present, and from present to cycle tops.
Bitcoin: Bottom to Present. Present to Top.
Last two cycles:
903 days from bottom to present
161 days from present to top🟦 = The amount of time it's been since the bottom in 2022. I then put that same time (903 days) over the the prior two cycles.
🟩 = The amount of time… pic.twitter.com/w1uz3dmuMW— ₿rett (@brett_eth) May 3, 2025
The data shows Bitcoin has spent exactly 903 days since its 2022 price bottom. This matches similar points in previous cycles that began in 2015 and 2018.
When applying this pattern to previous cycles, Brett found that both the 2017 and 2021 bull markets reached their peaks approximately 161 days after this 903-day mark. In 2017, BTC climbed to around $16,000, while in 2021 it topped near $69,000.
This historical pattern suggests the current cycle could peak on October 11, 2025. This timeline challenges earlier predictions that the bull run had ended at the start of 2025.
$300K Call Options Show Market Optimism
Meanwhile, a different indicator of market sentiment has emerged in the options market. Traders are placing substantial bets on Bitcoin reaching extreme price levels by mid-year.
The $300,000 strike call option expiring June 26 on Deribit has become the second-most popular options bet for that expiry date. This represents speculation that Bitcoin’s price could triple by the end of June.
Over 5,000 contracts were active in this option at last count. The total notional open interest stands at $484 million, second only to the $110K call option.
Deribit dominates the crypto options market with over 75% of global activity. Each contract on the platform represents 1 BTC.
Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at market maker GSR, compared these deep out-of-the-money calls to lottery tickets. “There are always folks that want the hyperinflation hedge,” he explained, referring to the appeal of such speculative positions.
These options are relatively cheap compared to strikes closer to current market prices. However, they offer massive payoffs if Bitcoin rises dramatically before expiration.
The June 26 expiry represents the largest settlement date of all options expiring this year. This quarterly expiry typically drives increased market activity and volatility.
Political Support Influences Market Sentiment
Political developments may be fueling some of this market optimism. GSR trader Simranjeet Singh believes the high interest in $300K calls partly stems from pro-crypto regulatory narratives and discussions about a potential “BTC strategic reserve.”
Senator Cynthia Lummis recently expressed pleasure with presidential support for her BITCOIN Act. On social media, she described it as “the only solution to our nation’s $36T debt” and praised the president’s forward-thinking approach.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $96,500, showing a slight decline of about 1% over the previous 24 hours.
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