Key Takeaways
- MSTR shares advanced 5.1% to $135.17 following the August CPI release that calmed concerns about aggressive rate increases
- STRC preferred shares reached $98.64, marking a 15-week peak and climbing 38% from late June lows, now $1.36 shy of par
- The company has bought back $811.5 million worth of STRC since July through proceeds from MSTR stock and Bitcoin sales
- Canaccord Genuity upgraded MSTR’s price objective to $179 while maintaining its Buy recommendation
- Technical analysis shows MSTR encountered resistance at the 200-day SMA of $138, with support positioned around $126
Strategy (MSTR) shares posted a solid 5.1% advance on September 11, touching an intraday peak of $137 before settling at $130. The rally materialized after August’s Consumer Price Index revealed a 0.33% monthly increase in core inflation, which elevated Federal Reserve rate hike probabilities to 79% and triggered heightened movement in cryptocurrency-related equities.
Bitcoin hovered around $77,000 prior to the CPI announcement, weighed down by climbing oil prices and higher Treasury yields. The less-alarming headline figure offered respite to risk-oriented assets, propelling MSTR significantly beyond the gains registered by major market benchmarks. The S&P 500 advanced 0.9%, the Dow Jones added 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.1%.
MSTR’s trading range over the past 52 weeks spans from $81.81 to $365.21, leaving the stock considerably below its historical high point.
STRC Preferred Shares Approach Par Level
A significant catalyst behind the optimistic outlook for MSTR involves the resurgence of its STRC preferred shares. STRC finished trading at $98.64 on September 11, representing its strongest close since early June. This positions the security merely $1.36 beneath its $100 par value, following a remarkable 38% rebound from its all-time low of $71 recorded on June 26.
Strategy has been aggressively repurchasing STRC shares, deploying $176 million in its latest transaction and accumulating $811.5 million in total buybacks since initiating the program in July. The company finances these acquisitions through strategic sales of MSTR stock and Bitcoin holdings.
One market observer on X articulated the optimistic scenario: should STRC return to par value or exceed it, Strategy unlocks access to an expanded preferred equity capital-raising framework. This mechanism would enable the firm to secure additional funds for Bitcoin acquisitions, potentially elevating MSTR’s market-to-NAV ratio.
Wall Street’s Perspective
The analyst calculated MSTR’s present mNAV at 1.11x and suggested that an expansion to 1.5x mNAVāwhich he views as a modest projectionāwould position the stock near $185 using existing NAV calculations. This projection excludes potential Bitcoin accumulation that a fully operational STRC funding structure could facilitate.
Canaccord Genuity independently lifted its MSTR price objective from $175 to $179, expressing confidence in Bitcoin’s price recovery trajectory. The investment firm maintained its Buy stance on the shares.
Regarding financial positioning, Strategy disclosed on September 8 that it expanded its digital credit securities buyback authorization to $2 billion from $1 billion. The corporation also confirmed maintaining a $5.1 billion USD reserve alongside $1 billion in MSTR stock repurchase authority.
Strategy’s paper gains on its Bitcoin portfolio have contracted to $1.3 billion amid the recent cryptocurrency price correction.
From a technical perspective, MSTR challenged resistance at its 200-day simple moving average of $138 on September 11 but couldn’t secure a close above that threshold. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator at 0.17 suggests accumulation continues to dominate distribution. Should buying momentum diminish, the 100-day SMA at $126 represents the subsequent support zone. A settlement below $130 could expose the August 21 trough of $117.
Other cryptocurrency-linked equities posted modest increases. Coinbase (COIN) appreciated 1.73% while Circle (CRCL) edged up 0.31% during the session.
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