Key Takeaways
- Q2 revenue reached $7.8 billion for SpaceX, representing a 92% year-over-year increase and surpassing the $6.8 billion Wall Street projection
- The company reported $3.5 billion in EBITDA, significantly exceeding the $2.1 billion analyst consensus
- Shares have gained 7.8% during the current week, positioned to break a four-week slide
- SPCX received a Buy upgrade from Argus with a $160 price target
- Retail shareholders are facing approximately $4.5 billion in unrealized losses from their IPO investments
Shares of SpaceX surged over 6% on Friday, reaching approximately $116.82, as the stock appears ready to halt a punishing four-week decline that erased 33% of shareholder value.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
This recovery comes on the heels of impressive second-quarter financial results unveiled Tuesday after market close. The company reported $7.8 billion in quarterly revenue, marking a 92% year-over-year surge that handily beat analyst projections of $6.8 billion. The EBITDA figure of $3.5 billion similarly crushed Wall Street’s $2.1 billion estimate.
Following its market debut at $135 per share, the stock has experienced significant volatility, declining as much as 50% from its all-time high of $225.64. Current trading levels sit approximately 15% beneath the initial public offering price.
Retail Shareholders Bear Heavy Losses
Individual investors secured roughly 20% of available shares during SpaceX’s historic public offering. They continued accumulating positions in subsequent weeks. According to JPMorgan analysis, retail buying activity totaled at least $3.6 billion during the initial eight-plus weeks following the IPO.
Based on calculations showing an average entry price near $150 per share, these retail holders are currently facing unrealized losses totaling approximately $4.5 billion. Institutional investors, meanwhile, managed to exit positions at more favorable prices and largely sidestepped the steepest declines.
Wall Street Sentiment Improving
On Thursday, Argus elevated its rating on SPCX from Hold to Buy, establishing a $160 price objective. The research firm applied a 20x revenue multiple to its 2027 forecast of $110 billion. Argus emphasized that the company’s swift capital expenditure returns, predominantly in AI infrastructure investments, represented a significant bullish factor.
Raymond James maintained its Strong Buy recommendation with an ambitious $800 price target. Bernstein increased its objective to $248, pointing to elevated revenue projections. Cantor Fitzgerald preserved its Overweight stance at $246. UBS affirmed its Buy rating at $210, while Mizuho sustained an Outperform designation at $200.
According to FactSet data, analyst consensus for 2027 revenue has climbed to approximately $102 billion, up substantially from $72 billion projected at the end of July.
A persistent concern for investors remains the upcoming lockup expiration timeline. Mizuho highlighted that approximately 911.5 million insider-held shares will soon become eligible for market sale. Additional tranches are anticipated to unlock throughout the coming year, potentially creating ongoing selling pressure.
Management indicated that SpaceX expects a year-end 2026 revenue run rate nearing $100 billion, substantially above prior estimates. As Friday’s trading session concludes, the stock has posted a 7.8% weekly gain.
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