Key Takeaways
- SPCX shares have rallied approximately 22% following the initial lockup period expiration on August 7
- Another lockup expiration is scheduled for August 20, representing the second release since going public
- Shares remain more than 6% below their June IPO level and approximately 30% off the peak of $201.80
- Mizuho maintains its Outperform stance with a $200 target, suggesting potential 42% gains
- Competitor Stoke Space Technologies pursues $1 billion funding round for reusable rocket development
In Friday’s premarket session, SpaceX shares advanced 0.9% to reach $142.55, extending a rally that has delivered roughly 22% gains since the initial lockup period concluded on August 7.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Even with this recent strength, SPCX continues to trade more than 6% beneath its June 12 debut price, while sitting 30% under the $201.80 peak reached on June 16.
The stock’s momentum builds as market participants prepare for another critical event. August 20 marks the expiration of a second lockup tranche, representing the company’s second such release since its public debut two months prior.
Market observers are paying close attention. While many anticipated selling pressure following the initial lockup expiration, that scenario failed to materialize. Whether next week’s event produces a different outcome remains the central question.
According to a regulatory disclosure published Thursday, Elon Musk maintained a 48.4% ownership position in SpaceX as of June 30. Using Thursday’s closing price as a benchmark, this holding represents approximately $906.9 billion in value.
Mizuho Maintains Bullish Stance With $200 Target
Contributing to Friday’s positive sentiment, Mizuho’s Brett Linzey maintained his Outperform recommendation while establishing a $200 price objective for SPCX. This target suggests approximately 42% appreciation potential from present levels.
Linzey emphasized SpaceX’s artificial intelligence platform, Grok 4.6, describing it as delivering “frontier-level performance.” According to the analyst, the model now matches recent releases from OpenAI and Anthropic in coding capabilities, multi-turn reasoning tasks, and advanced mathematical operations.
The analyst suggests that competitive pricing combined with integration through Cursor, an AI-powered coding tool, positions Grok to attract additional enterprise clients and capture share from competing AI services.
Mizuho’s research also identified constrained supply in the AI computing sector. Collaborating with senior software analyst Gregg Moskowitz, Linzey discovered that premium compute resources remain limited, driving price increases for both current and previous-generation hardware.
This dynamic may favor SpaceX. Having constructed substantial internal computing infrastructure for its AI operations, the company relies less on third-party providers. As external capacity becomes increasingly difficult to obtain, this proprietary infrastructure could provide SpaceXAI with expansion opportunities.
Wall Street sentiment remains generally favorable. According to TipRanks data, SPCX holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating, derived from 24 Buy recommendations, five Hold ratings, and two Sell opinions. The consensus price objective of $232.35 indicates 64% upside potential from current trading levels.
Stoke Space Pursues $1 Billion to Challenge SpaceX Dominance
On the competitive landscape, emerging company Stoke Space Technologies is pursuing a $1 billion funding round to fast-track development of a completely reusable launch system, Bloomberg reported, citing sources with knowledge of the initiative.
SpaceX presently commands over 90% of the worldwide commercial satellite launch sector. Breaking into this market presents formidable challenges.
Blue Origin’s New Glenn vehicle experienced an engine malfunction during its third mission in April, leaving an AST SpaceMobile satellite in an incorrect orbit. A May static fire test then resulted in an explosion that destroyed the rocket and caused damage to a Cape Canaveral launch facility.
Linzey maintains a 74% accuracy rating on TipRanks, placing 244th among 12,468 monitored analysts, with ratings averaging 16.20% returns.
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