Key Takeaways
- SpaceX shares declined approximately 2.5% to $115.26 on Friday following consecutive postponements of the Starship test mission
- HSBC launched coverage with a Hold recommendation and $115 price objective, contrasting with Wall Street’s predominantly optimistic stance
- The company’s 13th Starship test mission has been postponed twice — initially due to engine complications, followed by adverse weather
- Short interest participants have accumulated roughly $15.5 billion in unrealized gains following the June public offering
- The company’s inaugural quarterly earnings disclosure is scheduled for August 4, with Starlink subscriber momentum as the focal point
Shares of SpaceX retreated 2.5% to $115.26 during Friday’s trading session, pressured by consecutive Starship launch postponements and an unexpected Hold recommendation from HSBC’s Nicolas Cote-Colisson, who established a $115 valuation target.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The equity has tumbled nearly 50% from its peak of $225.64 and currently trades 12% below its June IPO pricing of $135.
SpaceX’s 13th Starship test mission has faced two cancellations. The initial July 17 launch window was abandoned when multiple Raptor engines on the Super Heavy rocket stage failed to achieve ignition. A subsequent July 23 attempt was scrubbed due to meteorological conditions that compromised visibility for monitoring the vehicle’s thermal protection system.
SpaceX has subsequently swapped out several Raptor engines and conducted supplementary ground verification tests. Another launch window was targeted for Friday evening, with live coverage available via spacex.com and X.
During this flight test, the booster’s primary goals include a successful liftoff, stage separation sequence, boostback maneuver, and landing burn at a designated offshore location in the Gulf of America. The upper stage aims to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites and demonstrate an orbital engine restart capability before descending into the Indian Ocean.
HSBC Diverges From Bullish Consensus
HSBC’s Hold stance represents a significant departure from consensus. Entering Friday’s session, 28 of 37 Wall Street analysts — approximately 76% — maintained Buy recommendations on SpaceX. The consensus price objective stands near $237 per share. For context, typical Buy-rating concentration for S&P 500 constituents ranges between 55% and 60%.
Cote-Colisson recognized SpaceX as an innovative leader but counseled investors to exercise caution. He highlighted potential selling pressure as lock-up restrictions on early stakeholders expire in the months following the June public debut.
The August 4 financial results release represents the next critical catalyst. The analyst emphasized that SpaceX must demonstrate robust expansion in its Starlink segment to reinvigorate stock momentum.
Short Interest Continues Building Gains
Bearish investors have maintained aggressive positioning. Approximately $15.5 billion in mark-to-market profits have materialized since the public offering, with roughly 360 million SpaceX shares — representing about 56% of the available float — currently borrowed by short sellers.
Following two consecutive sessions with gains exceeding 19% immediately post-IPO, SpaceX stock has declined in 17 of the last 26 trading days. This encompasses a punishing seven-session losing streak that concluded Tuesday, immediately followed by a 6.7% decline Wednesday.
Alphabet disclosed a substantial SpaceX stake this week, reporting holdings valued at approximately $94.1 billion as of June 30 — although the subsequent share price deterioration has diminished the current marked value of that investment.
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 operations maintain a more consistent cadence. The company successfully deployed 24 Starlink satellites from California on July 21, just one day following an uncommon last-second launch abort.
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