Key Highlights
- SPCX reached a record low of $109.53 on Monday, representing approximately 50% decline from its peak of $225.64
- Shares have declined nearly 30% below the $150 IPO debut price from last month
- First quarterly earnings report scheduled for August 4, with significant lock-up expiration on August 6 permitting up to 20% of restricted shares to trade
- Latest Starship Flight 13 achieved successful launch, placing 20 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit, despite Super Heavy booster landing complications
- Company has discontinued accepting new Falcon 9 contracts past 2028, placing critical importance on Starship program success
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) continued their downward trajectory Tuesday morning, falling an additional 4% in early trading following Monday’s session that established a fresh all-time low of $109.53. The stock settled Monday’s trading at $113.50, representing a 1.4% decline.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
From its debut offering price of $150 established just one month ago, the stock has surrendered nearly 30% of its value. Measured against its peak of $225.64, the decline approaches 50%. This erosion in market capitalization — exceeding $1.2 trillion — rivals the complete market value of Tesla (TSLA).
The latest session marked SPCX’s 13th negative close across the previous 16 trading days.
The persistent selling pressure persists even after Friday’s productive Starship test mission. During its 13th experimental flight, the spacecraft successfully delivered all 20 advanced Starlink V3 satellites, executed an in-space engine restart, and achieved what SpaceX characterized as its gentlest ocean touchdown yet.
“I’m a little over the moon right now,” SpaceX spokesperson Dan Huot said during the company’s livestream. “Lucky number 13.”
The mission encountered some challenges. The Super Heavy booster couldn’t ignite all 13 engines during its landing sequence and impacted the Gulf of Mexico with greater force than planned. Recovery of either stage wasn’t part of this particular flight plan.
CEO Elon Musk announced SpaceX plans to attempt capturing the Starship upper stage with the “Mechazilla” tower arms during the subsequent flight, contingent on favorable mission data analysis.
Upcoming Earnings and Lock-Up Release Creating Market Uncertainty
Market participants are expressing growing concern ahead of SpaceX’s inaugural quarterly earnings announcement, set for August 4. Just 48 hours following that report, on August 6, approximately 911.5 million restricted stock units — representing roughly 20% of locked shares — will become eligible for trading.
“I don’t think the lock-up on SpaceX will be as bad as everyone fears,” said Charles Moon, a tech and momentum specialist at Prosper Trading Academy. “But it’s not going to help the cause either.”
Monday’s options market activity painted a complex scenario. While traders purchased 106,000 call contracts versus 77,000 puts measured by volume, the majority of the $442 million in total premium was allocated toward put positions. The highest-volume individual contract was a 330-strike call expiring Friday — valued at just 10 cents with approximately one-third of 1% probability of profitability.
Company Stakes Future on Starship Program
SpaceX has executed a decisive strategic shift from its Falcon 9 platform. The company has ceased accepting dedicated Falcon 9 mission bookings extending past 2028, terminated Falcon 9 rideshare reservation programs, and scaled back manufacturing of certain single-use Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy components.
This strategic direction places substantial weight on Starship’s ability to deliver consistent, large-scale performance. SpaceX’s roadmap calls for multiple dozen Starship missions next year, expanding to hundreds by 2028, with ambitions for thousands of launches in subsequent years.
“As a trader, Wall Street is now punishing the AI stocks for capex,” Moon said.
Alex Morris, CEO of F/m Investments, recognized the immediate headwinds while maintaining an optimistic outlook. “SpaceX doesn’t really have a natural competitor base. They have a good product with an intergalactic-sized moat, and more customers every day.”
Shares were changing hands near $107 Tuesday morning as of 9:58 AM EDT.
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