Key Takeaways
- DZ Bank launched coverage on SpaceX (SPCX) with a Sell recommendation and $100 price objective, suggesting approximately 25% potential decline.
- Contrasting the pessimistic outlook, three-quarters of Wall Street experts maintain Buy recommendations, averaging a $220.20 price objective.
- The company delivered quarterly sales of $7.81 billion, representing 91.9% growth versus the prior year and surpassing projections.
- A subsequent lockup period conclusion introduced 319 million shares to public markets, driving shares beneath the $135 initial offering price.
- CEO Elon Musk postponed the Starship upper-stage recovery attempt by multiple months, creating investor disappointment.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) were changing hands near $131.82 during Friday’s session, declining 1.6% for the day, following a brief 1.5% premarket gain triggered by DZ Bank analyst Markus Leistner’s fresh Sell assessment.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Leistner established a $100 price objective, implying approximately 25% downside potential from SpaceX’s current valuation. This perspective stands among the most pessimistic on the Street, where three-quarters of equity researchers assign Buy recommendations to SPCX. Consensus analyst targets hover around $220.20.
Recent trading sessions proved challenging for the stock. Entering Friday, SPCX had declined 4.3% across the prior five trading days, positioning it marginally beneath its $135 debut price. The 52-week trading band extends from $104.83 through $225.64.
DZ Bank opted against releasing the complete research analysis publicly, referencing U.S. regulatory constraints. However, the fundamental bearish thesis revolves around capital requirements. SpaceX faces projected aggregate capital expenditures approaching $800 billion before decade’s end, with substantial portions allocated toward artificial intelligence infrastructure.
The organization presently operates approximately 1.4 gigawatts of computing capacity distributed across dual data facilities and aims to expand to 10 gigawatts before 2027 concludes. Extended-horizon objectives are calibrated in hundreds of gigawatts. Executing this buildout necessitates SpaceX securing substantial debt and equity financing.
Such investment carries considerable upside potential. A single gigawatt of AI computational power can generate annual lease revenues approaching $50 billion. Optimistic analysts reference this revenue prospect as validation for the equity’s current valuation.
Strong Revenue Performance Supports Optimistic Perspective
SpaceX delivered quarterly sales of $7.81 billion in its latest financial disclosure, marking 91.9% year-over-year expansion. The firm recorded a $0.09 per-share deficit, outperforming analyst consensus calling for a $0.26 shortfall. Complete fiscal 2026 revenue projections approach $44 billion, with 2027 forecasts exceeding $100 billion.
Additional analysts maintain conviction. Argus recently elevated SPCX from Hold to Buy with a $160 objective. William Blair reaffirmed its Buy stance, highlighting SpaceX’s reusability competitive edge and AI-driven revenue opportunities. Stifel Nicolaus maintains a $190 target. Piper Sandler carries a Neutral assessment with a $140 objective following recent estimate adjustments.
Share Lockup Release and Starship Postponement Create Headwinds
Thursday’s 4.1% pullback followed 319 million shares controlled by company insiders and initial backers becoming tradeable. Additional lockup releases are calendared through 2027, potentially exerting ongoing downward pressure.
Musk additionally verified that SpaceX will postpone attempting to capture the descending Starship upper stage using the launch tower infrastructure for several additional months. Market participants had anticipated an August recovery effort. Starship’s complete reusability capability is viewed as fundamental to minimizing orbital access costs, which anchors the company’s extended-term financial model.
SpaceX achieved its 100th orbital mission of 2026 this week and grew the Starlink satellite network beyond 11,000 operational units.
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