Key Takeaways
- Bernstein assigns an Outperform rating to SpaceX with a $248 price objective, suggesting 74% potential gain from present valuation.
- The firm projects SpaceX AI-related revenue will skyrocket from $24.6 billion in 2026 to $115.1 billion by 2027.
- SpaceX’s announcement of entering turbine blade production triggered selloffs across multiple power equipment stocks.
- Analysts on Wall Street downplayed risks to established manufacturers, noting a 4+ year timeline for meaningful production ramp-up.
- Citi placed Howmet Aerospace on upside catalyst watch while Deutsche Bank designated it as their preferred aerospace supplier investment.
Shares of SpaceX are changing hands at $141.04, declining 0.8% during Wednesday’s session, contrasting with gains in major indices. The S&P 500 has advanced 0.55% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs 0.77%.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The aerospace company controlled by Elon Musk has experienced a particularly eventful week. Shares have rallied approximately 25% during the trailing 30-day period, with momentum showing little indication of subsiding.
Bernstein’s Douglas Harned maintains an Outperform stance on the stock with a $248 valuation target. This price objective represents approximately 74% appreciation potential from today’s trading levels. Harned anticipates SpaceX’s artificial intelligence segment will soar from $24.6 billion in 2026 to $115.1 billion the following year, positioning AI as the dominant revenue contributor.
The research firm projects overall revenue reaching $46.4 billion in 2026, then exploding to $150.4 billion in 2027. The lion’s share of this expansion stems from AI-related operations.
Bernstein’s investment case extends well beyond launch vehicles. The firm identifies orbital data center infrastructure as a significant long-term value driver. Plans call for constructing Starbase Louisiana across 125,000 acres, with groundbreaking scheduled for 2027 and inaugural Starship launches from the location targeted for 2029. The complex is designed to accommodate no fewer than 10 launch platforms and ultimately facilitate over 30 Starship missions daily.
The company also finalized its Cursor acquisition recently, incorporating software development capabilities into its Grok AI ecosystem. Bernstein believes this positions SpaceX to monetize AI services directly, complementing its computational infrastructure offerings.
Starlink Connectivity and Terafab Drive Additional Momentum
Bernstein’s model shows Starlink connectivity generating $17.0 billion in 2026 and $27.7 billion in 2027, ultimately scaling to $205.9 billion by 2031. The aviation vertical continues expanding, with 46 carriers now participating. Qatar Airways broadened its deployment last August, while Royal Air Maroc became a recent addition.
SpaceX’s proposed Terafab semiconductor manufacturing plant in Texas represents another strategic initiative. The opening phase alone carries an estimated capital investment requirement of approximately $16.8 billion.
The Street’s average price objective for SpaceX stands at $231.63, indicating 64% upside potential. The consensus rating registers as Moderate Buy, derived from 25 Buy recommendations, five Hold ratings, and three Sell opinions since the initial public offering.
Power Equipment Sector Experiences Volatility
SpaceX’s disclosure regarding plans to manufacture turbine blades created turbulence throughout the power generation equipment industry. Howmet Aerospace declined roughly 4% over the week heading into Wednesday. GE Vernova and Siemens Energy retreated approximately 3% and 6%, respectively. Caterpillar and Cummins also experienced declines.
Analysts challenged the market reaction. Citi implemented an upside catalyst watch on Howmet, characterizing the selloff as excessive. Deutsche Bank selected Howmet as its premier aerospace supplier recommendation with 35% appreciation potential. Jefferies noted that any new competitor would require four years minimum to develop single-crystal casting capabilities at scale.
22V Research observed that SpaceX’s more probable near-term strategy involves producing replacement components for its proprietary power generation assets rather than directly challenging incumbent manufacturers. The company acquired APR Energy this year, an operator that deploys electricity-generating systems and sources turbines from suppliers including GE Vernova.
Despite receiving analyst backing, Howmet shares still traded down 1.2% on Wednesday.
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