Key Highlights
- Analysts have increased SpaceX’s revenue projection for 2027 to $100 billion from a previous $70 billion estimate, fueled by accelerating AI sector expansion.
- The company’s artificial intelligence division is expected to contribute $60 billion in 2027 revenues, a significant jump from the prior $38 billion forecast.
- Revised financial models suggest SPCX share prices could range from $140 to $200, substantially higher than the initial $90 post-merger projection.
- Analysts anticipate SpaceX will generate $530 billion in AI-driven revenues by 2031, far exceeding earlier projections of approximately $150 billion.
- Finance professor Aswath Damodaran from NYU cautions that providing computing infrastructure to companies like Google and Anthropic may constrain long-term valuation potential.
SpaceX stock (SPCX) experienced a 2.2% decline in premarket trading Monday, settling at $147.90, despite financial analysts significantly increasing their valuation targets for the aerospace company.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Financial analysts have elevated their revenue expectations for SpaceX in 2027 to $100 billion, marking a substantial increase from the $70 billion figure projected just several months earlier. Anticipated core earnings for the same year have surged from $28 billion to $59 billion during this period.
The catalyst behind these enhanced projections is the company’s artificial intelligence operations. Analysts now forecast SpaceX’s AI division will generate $60 billion in revenues by 2027, significantly above the $38 billion estimate made in July.
This rapid growth trajectory has fundamentally altered SpaceX’s projected cash flow dynamics. Earlier projections indicated the company would consume $24 billion in cash through 2030. Current analyst consensus now anticipates positive free cash flow generation.
Extended forecasts predict AI-related revenues will reach $530 billion by 2031. Initial estimates for that timeframe hovered around $150 billion.
Updated Financial Models Drive Higher Valuations
Aswath Damodaran, a finance professor at NYU, had previously valued SpaceX at approximately $100 per share in June, incorporating 2036 AI revenues of $160 billion into his analysis. That projection now appears understated.
Applying revised AI revenue assumptions of $500 billion by 2036, the stock valuation could approach $140. Should 2036 AI revenues reach $1 trillion, price targets would climb toward $200.
These calculations suggest that each $100 billion increment in annual AI revenue by 2036 translates to approximately $10 per share in current valuation.
Based on current market prices, SPCX is trading at approximately 34 times projected 2027 Ebitda. This represents a premium compared to GE Aerospace and GE Vernova, which trade around 25 times.
According to TipRanks, SPCX holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating, compiled from 26 Buy recommendations, six Hold ratings, and two Sell ratings. The consensus price target stands at $231.68, suggesting potential upside exceeding 53% from current trading levels.
Professor Raises Strategic Concerns
Despite the enhanced financial projections, Damodaran remains hesitant to adjust his valuation model. His primary concern centers on the source composition of AI revenues.
A substantial portion of SpaceX’s current AI growth stems from leasing computational infrastructure to external organizations, including Google and Anthropic. Damodaran believes this business model has inherent limitations.
“That actually takes away from their AI story, since to win in that story, you have to be generating revenues from creating AI agents and collecting subscription or usage revenues,” he explained to Barron’s.
He drew a parallel to a manufacturing company constructing a large production facility for a high-growth product line, then leasing the majority of that capacity to rival firms.
Starlink’s subscriber base has expanded twofold from under 6 million in June 2025 to surpass 12 million by June 2026. Falcon rocket family launches increased from fewer than 50 in 2021 to over 150 in 2025.
SpaceX now commands 80% of worldwide mass delivered to orbit, up from 45% recorded in January 2021.
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