Key Takeaways
- Shares of SpaceX declined 6.4% to $130.66, dipping beneath the company’s $135 initial public offering price Thursday.
- Elon Musk announced that the Starship upper stage catch will take place “in a few months” rather than in the immediate future.
- The company’s 14th Starship test flight was anticipated to include the upper stage catch utilizing mechanical tower arms.
- William Blair’s Louie DiPalma maintains an Outperform rating, noting that a several-month postponement isn’t materially significant.
- The company plans to deploy Starmind AI computing satellites by 2027, a mission that will likely depend on Starship capabilities.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) tumbled 6.4% to $130.66 during Thursday’s midday session, falling beneath its $135 initial public offering price following CEO Elon Musk’s announcement of a delayed timeline for the Starship upper stage tower catch.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
In a post on X, Musk indicated that the company would “probably catch the ship with the tower in a few months,” tempering expectations that this achievement would occur during the upcoming test flight.
The company’s 14th Starship test flight, slated for later this month, was anticipated to showcase the upper stage catch. SpaceX successfully demonstrated this technique with the Super Heavy booster during October 2024’s Flight 5, employing the massive mechanical “Mechazilla” arms at the Starbase facility in Texas.
The booster capture was successfully replicated on subsequent missions, including Flight 7, demonstrating the reliability of the system. Capturing the upper stage presents additional complexities, as it must withstand significantly higher velocities and thermal stresses following near-orbital flight.
Musk additionally revealed that the first reflight of a Starship vehicle is projected for late 2026 or early 2027.
The S&P 500 declined 0.5% during Thursday’s session, indicating SpaceX’s decline substantially exceeded the broader market’s performance.
Analyst Perspectives
Louie DiPalma from William Blair dismissed concerns over the sell-off. In his Thursday analysis, he characterized the delay as “not that consequential” given that SpaceX maintains a lead of “likely a full decade ahead of peers” in rocket reusability technology.
DiPalma assigns the stock an Outperform rating without establishing a specific price target. Within William Blair’s rating framework, this designation indicates the analyst anticipates the stock will outperform the overall market.
While acknowledging the schedule adjustment, he emphasized the company’s overall advancement: Starship continues progressing toward complete reusability, enabling both rocket stages to return to the launch site, undergo refueling, and launch again rapidly.
This swift reusability forms the foundation of SpaceX’s cost reduction strategy, with Musk asserting it could reduce orbital launch costs by a factor of 100 or greater.
Implications for SpaceX’s Future
SpaceX stock has experienced significant fluctuations following its historic June initial public offering. Thursday’s decline represents one of the most pronounced single-day movements since the company went public.
Progress on Starship extends beyond the testing program itself. SpaceX is aiming for 2027 to launch its Starmind AI computing satellites, a mission that will likely require Starship’s capabilities.
The company anticipates that space-based data centers, enabled by these satellites, will provide a substantial AI competitive edge over rivals confined to terrestrial infrastructure.
The 13th Starship test in July was characterized as successful. SpaceX indicated that mission data would inform whether a catch attempt would proceed on the following flight, though Musk’s recent statement confirms that schedule has been revised.
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