Key Highlights
- Fiscal Q4 earnings scheduled for Tuesday with Wall Street projecting $5.10 EPS and $3.5 billion revenue
- Wedbush Securities increased STX price target from $825 to $1,000 while keeping Overweight rating
- Shares gained 2.5% to $872.53 Monday premarket after declining 11% through July, including Friday’s 6% loss
- Higher-priced long-term contracts with major cloud providers anticipated to begin in late 2026
- Western Digital (WDC) also received Wedbush upgrade with new $650 target (up from $540) before its August 5 report
Shares of Seagate Technology (STX) climbed 2.5% to $872.53 during Monday’s premarket session following a challenging week. The data storage company is scheduled to release its fiscal fourth-quarter results after market close on Tuesday, July 28.
Seagate Technology Holdings plc, STX
Over the trailing twelve months, the stock has skyrocketed more than 450%, establishing itself as a standout performer in the artificial intelligence market surge. However, recent weeks have proven difficult. The stock has retreated 11% during July, with Friday’s session alone accounting for a 6% decline. This trajectory puts STX on track for its worst monthly showing since March 2025.
Seagate finished Friday’s trading session marginally above its 50-day moving average support level.
Matt Bryson, an analyst at Wedbush, reaffirmed his Overweight stance Monday while boosting his target from $825 to $1,000. His optimism stems from anticipated modest pricing power and an enhanced revenue mix that should enable Seagate to surpass Street expectations.
“We expect slight price increases combined with improved mix should allow Seagate to again exceed forecast results,” Bryson wrote.
According to FactSet consensus data, analysts are modeling fiscal Q4 earnings of $5.10 per share—representing 96% year-over-year growth—alongside revenue of $3.5 billion, marking a 43% increase.
Persistent Strength in Hard Drive Market
In his research note, Bryson highlighted that both demand pressures and supply limitations within the hard-disk drive sector are projected to persist through 2027. The primary demand driver remains cloud hyperscalers, who rely heavily on HDDs for storing enormous datasets required for training artificial intelligence models.
Both Seagate and Western Digital control the HDD landscape and have emerged as major winners from the surge in AI infrastructure investment.
Investors should monitor one particular dynamic: current long-term supply agreements between hard drive manufacturers and hyperscale customers may limit immediate pricing upside. That said, Bryson anticipates a fresh wave of contracts taking effect in the second half of 2026 with improved average selling prices, creating favorable conditions extending into 2027.
Western Digital Receives Similar Treatment
Wedbush simultaneously increased Western Digital’s price objective to $650 from $540, with Bryson maintaining his Overweight recommendation on that name as well.
“We anticipate WDC should report upside to consensus, with seemingly more room for a beat given a more conservative gross margin guide,” Bryson wrote.
Western Digital’s quarterly results are due August 5. Analyst consensus projects earnings of $3.30 per share on $3.7 billion in quarterly revenue.
STX, WDC, Micron (MU), and Sandisk (SNDK) frequently move in tandem and have all posted declines throughout July.
Seagate holds an IBD Composite Rating of 87 out of a possible 99, ranking it seventh within the Computer-Hardware/Peripherals sector grouping.
Wall Street’s consensus forecast for Seagate’s fiscal fourth quarter remains at $5.08 per share in earnings on $3.49 billion in revenue, based on analyst projections compiled by Seeking Alpha.
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