Key Takeaways
- Bernstein continues to hold an “underperform” stance on NVO, setting a target price of 203 Danish kronerārepresenting a potential 33% decline from the 305.10 kroner closing price on August 7.
- The firm reduced its earnings per share projections for 2026-2031 by as much as 15% compared to Street estimates, pointing to escalating U.S. market share erosion against Eli Lilly.
- By 2028, Bernstein anticipates Lilly’s Foundayo will capture the dominant position in the U.S. oral obesity treatment segment, overtaking Novo’s Wegovy pill.
- Recent Wegovy pill revenue of approximately $497 million fell slightly short of analyst expectations, amplifying shareholder concerns.
- Wall Street consensus remains at “Hold” with a mean price target of $65.81; shares closed Friday at $47.21.
Shares of Novo Nordisk kicked off trading Friday at $47.21, marking a significant retreat from the 52-week peak of $64.16, as mounting analyst skepticism weighs on the Danish pharmaceutical giant.
Bernstein has emerged as the latest voice to quantify the challenges ahead. The firm reaffirmed its “underperform” designation while marginally lifting its target to 203 Danish kroner from the previous 200 kroner. Even with this modest adjustment, the target suggests a 33% drop from the August 7 closing figure of 305.10 kroner.
The brokerage reduced its 2026 earnings per share estimate to 20.19 kroner, marking a 7% discount to consensus projections. Looking further out, its 2031 forecast of 24.20 kroner sits 15% beneath prevailing Street expectations. According to Bernstein, its bull/bear analysis shows an asymmetric risk profile, offering merely 4% potential upside while exposing investors to 40% downside through 2035 on projected EBIT.
The primary headwind stems from Eli Lilly. Bernstein’s analysis suggests Novo will cede majority control of the U.S. oral obesity treatment market to Lilly’s Foundayo by 2028, creating significant headwinds for Wegovy pill revenue trajectories.
Additionally, Bernstein has abandoned its optimistic stance on Cagri-sema as a growth catalyst. The drug’s REDEFINE-4 study, which reported results in February 2026, failed to demonstrate non-inferiority compared to Lilly’s Zepbound. This outcome eliminates a critical pipeline opportunity that investors had previously factored into valuations.
Wegovy Revenue Shortfall Compounds Concerns
Revenue from the Wegovy pill reached approximately $497 million during the latest reporting period, falling just shy of analyst projections. Chief Executive Mike Doustdar alongside Chief Financial Officer Karina Hertmann have begun recalibrating market expectations, signaling a more measured growth strategy moving forward.
On a brighter note, Novo elevated its full-year revenue and earnings guidance for the second consecutive time in 2024. The pharmaceutical company posted second-quarter sales of $11.98 billion with earnings per share of $0.94. Additionally, a Texas court dismissed antitrust allegations claiming Novo and Lilly improperly limited access to compounded GLP-1 medications, eliminating one regulatory uncertainty.
Bernstein made a slight upward revision to its price target following the inclusion of coramitug projectionsāan antibody licensed from Prothena currently undergoing phase 3 testing for ATTR-cardiomyopathy. The firm estimates peak revenue of $928 million for this therapy, substantially below the $6.3 billion consensus figure.
Institutional Holdings Show Notable Shifts
Teamwork Financial Advisors dramatically reduced its NVO position by 94.9% during the second quarter, offloading 95,033 shares while maintaining just 5,091 shares valued at approximately $244,000. Various other institutional players executed smaller position adjustments in the same timeframe.
Institutional ownership currently represents 11.54% of outstanding shares. The company commands a market capitalization of $210.77 billion, trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.54, and touched a 52-week low of $35.12.
Among 21 analysts monitored by MarketBeat, five maintain Buy recommendations, fifteen suggest Hold positions, and one advises a Sell. The average price target across all analysts sits at $65.81.
The company announced a dividend distribution of $0.5786 per share, scheduled for payment on August 25 to shareholders on record as of August 17.
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