Moderna (MRNA) Stock Rockets 177%: Can Cancer Vaccine Momentum Last?

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Moderna shares skyrocketed 177% in one trading session following positive late-stage data on its personalized mRNA cancer vaccine for melanoma patients.
The single-day rally represents the biggest percentage gain for any S&P 500 member in more than two decades.
The biotech’s valuation climbed from approximately $25 billion to nearly $60 billion following the news.
Several Wall Street analysts caution that market expectations may exceed realistic revenue forecasts, with some models showing only low-single-digit billions in annual sales by 2032.
Major challenges include elevated production expenses, European pricing headwinds, and uncertainty about efficacy across different cancer types.

Shares of Moderna exploded 177% higher on Wednesday following the release of encouraging late-stage clinical trial data for its personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine, developed in partnership with Merck. The massive single-session rally marked the biggest one-day percentage increase for any S&P 500 constituent in over two decades.

Moderna, Inc., MRNA

The company’s valuation expanded from approximately $25 billion to nearly $60 billion in just one trading day. When combined with valuation increases at Merck and BioNTech—which is advancing its own personalized mRNA cancer treatment—the trio collectively added roughly $80 billion in market capitalization over several days.

Clinical results demonstrated that melanoma patients receiving the customized vaccine in combination with Merck’s immunotherapy drug Keytruda experienced lower rates of cancer recurrence versus those treated with Keytruda alone. This represents the first successful late-stage demonstration of an mRNA-based cancer vaccine’s efficacy.

The therapeutic approach involves examining a patient’s tumor tissue, detecting up to 34 genetic mutations, and programming the immune system to recognize those specific alterations. In clinical practice, typically just two or three mutations generate a substantial immune response. Melanoma, characterized by numerous mutations and responsiveness to immune-based treatments, represents an ideal initial target for this technology.

Wall Street Pumps the Brakes

Not everyone shares the market’s enthusiasm.

Daina Graybosch, an analyst at Leerink Partners, forecasts the treatment could produce low-single-digit billions in yearly revenue by 2032. Even under an optimistic scenario where the vaccine reaches $10 billion in annual peak sales for the Moderna-Merck collaboration, that revenue potential might justify approximately $40 billion in combined market value creation. The market delivered more than that increase in just one afternoon.

Luca Issi from RBC Capital Markets observes that current valuations assume the vaccine will replicate the broad success of Keytruda or Opdivo—treatments that demonstrated effectiveness across numerous cancer types. However, the vaccine may ultimately prove beneficial in a significantly more limited range of malignancies.

The cancer types Moderna and Merck intend to pursue next pose more substantial obstacles. Kidney cancer features fewer targetable mutations. Bladder cancer presents a more immunotherapy-resistant tumor microenvironment. Pancreatic cancer has proven exceptionally challenging to treat using immune-based approaches.

Manufacturing Costs Add Another Hurdle

Unlike conventional pharmaceuticals produced in bulk quantities, this vaccine must be manufactured individually for each patient. Surgeons remove tumor tissue, forward it to a laboratory for genetic sequencing, and a customized mRNA treatment is then created. This process carries significant costs.

The complete treatment regimen could be priced around $300,000, based on comparable personalized therapies. Such pricing creates obstacles in European healthcare systems, where regulators negotiate aggressively on pharmaceutical costs. The Trump administration’s efforts to align U.S. drug pricing with international benchmarks could further constrain domestic pricing flexibility.

According to Graybosch, gross profit margins might range between 50% and 80% initially. This falls considerably short of the 90%-plus margins typical for conventional pharmaceutical products.

Moderna has consistently been a narrative-driven investment. The more substantial long-term opportunity, analysts suggest, may involve deploying mRNA technology to prevent cancer in high-risk individuals before disease onset. That application, however, remains years away from realization.

Moderna’s market capitalization stood near $60 billion at the conclusion of last week, up from roughly $25 billion prior to Wednesday’s announcement.

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