Key Takeaways
- Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform stance on Circle with a $140 price objective, suggesting approximately 59% potential gains from the $87.98 closing price
- The supply of USDC expanded by $1.7 billion over one week following roughly half a year of stagnant growth
- According to Bernstein, Circle’s expansion trajectory isn’t contingent on CLARITY Act approval this September
- Stablecoin transaction volumes, when adjusted for activity, reached a $17 trillion annual rate extending into July 2026
- Circle’s Agent Stack platform now powers over 900 commercial services, capturing 99.3% of x402 agent payment flows through USDC
Investment firm Bernstein has reaffirmed its bullish position on Circle Internet Group (CRCL), maintaining both its Outperform designation and $140 price objective despite ongoing questions surrounding the CLARITY Act’s future. This valuation suggests potential upside of roughly 59% compared to Circle’s latest closing price of $87.98. Current trading data shows CRCL at $89.20, representing a 1.4% increase.
The research report, released on August 24 under the direction of analyst Gautam Chhugani, argues that Circle’s expansion prospects remain independent of whether lawmakers approve the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure legislation next month.
The company delivered second-quarter revenues totaling $701 million, marking a 7% annual increase, albeit falling marginally short of analyst projections. Profitability reached $48 million on a net income basis, translating to earnings per share of $0.18, which surpassed market estimates.
USDC Circulation Rebounds Following Extended Stagnation
Following approximately half a year of horizontal movement, USDC’s total supply surged by nearly $1.7 billion within just seven days. Bernstein interprets this development as evidence that user adoption is accelerating once more.
According to the firm’s analysis, USDC processes approximately 80% of all decentralized exchange and DeFi activity volumes. When adjusted to exclude automated trading and bot-driven transactions, stablecoin payment volume reached roughly $11 trillion during 2025 and was tracking toward a $17 trillion annualized trajectory through July 2026. This represents approximately 60% growth compared to the previous year.
Circle secured authorization from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency this past July to create Circle National Trust, a federally overseen national trust banking institution. This development may ultimately transition USDC reserve oversight into a federally regulated framework.
Standard Chartered introduced immediate USDC creation and redemption capabilities for its institutional client base. An additional partnership with Fireblocks enables institutions to oversee USDC holdings and channel transactions into domestic currency via Circle’s Payments Network, which achieved $14.7 billion in annualized processing volume by the conclusion of Q2.
AI Agent Transactions Open New USDC Growth Avenue
Bernstein also highlighted automated machine-to-machine transactions as an increasingly significant component of USDC’s expansion narrative. Circle introduced Agent Stack this past May, equipping software agents with capabilities to maintain digital assets and execute programmable transactions.
By the second quarter, Agent Stack had been integrated by more than 900 commercial services, with USDC capturing 99.3% of all x402 agent payment activity. Independent research from Keyrock documented that AI agents processed $73 million across 176 million individual transactions over a twelve-month period, with USDC accounting for 98.6% of those payment settlements.
Regarding the regulatory landscape, Bernstein suggested that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass during the September 15 vote, regulatory agencies like the SEC and CFTC would probably issue their own guidance frameworks rather than allowing Circle’s progress to stall.
On the competitive front, Mizuho downgraded Circle to Underperform last July with a $50 valuation, expressing concerns about profitability pressures stemming from Open USD’s collaborative consortium approach. Circle President Heath Tarbert responded by emphasizing USDC’s superior liquidity position and established ecosystem integrations.
Circle maintains momentum in partnership development. Its collaboration with Japan’s JCB explores potential USDC applications in corporate treasury management and merchant payment systems. Partnerships with Kakao and Toss are investigating stablecoin deployment opportunities throughout South Korea. Additionally, USDC became available on BNY’s Digital Asset Custody platform this past June.
Bernstein’s prior price target for Circle stood at $190.
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