TLDR
- Bitcoin’s higher-probability bottom range is placed between $46,000 and $54,000 by Glassnode’s co-founder.
- CVDD near $46,200 is viewed as a key historical anchor for Bitcoin market bottoms.
- A deeper Bitcoin capitulation zone between $35,000 and $40,000 remains possible but historically rare.
- Bitcoin’s first recovery zone is near $75,000 to $79,000 based on market valuation levels.
- U.S. senators are urging regulators to revisit bank capital rules for digital asset exposure.
Bitcoin may find stronger support between $46,000 and $54,000, according to a framework outlined by Glassnode co-founder Rafael, who cited several on-chain valuation models used to assess historical market bottom zones. The range spans the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed, known as CVDD, and Realized Price levels, both of which have often been watched during periods of market stress.
Rafael said the current market structure places Bitcoin inside a valuation area that has previously been associated with cycle lows, although he said the framework should not be treated as a firm price prediction. He added that Bitcoin bottoms cannot be identified with certainty before they occur, making probability-based ranges more useful than fixed targets.
On-Chain Models Point to $46K to $54K Support
The higher-probability support zone currently sits between CVDD and Realized Price, with CVDD near $46,200 described as one of the more precise historical bottom references. Rafael said earlier cycle lows tended to cluster within a 1.05 to 1.18 times range of the CVDD metric, giving the current zone added relevance for market watchers.
A deeper capitulation area between $35,000 and $40,000 was also identified through Balanced Price and Delta Price models. According to the framework, Bitcoin has traded in that lower zone on fewer than 3% of all trading days, making it a less frequent but still possible downside case.
Rafael also noted that Bitcoin’s cycle drawdowns have become shallower over time. The asset is about 50% below its current cycle high, compared with earlier declines of 77% to 85%, which may reduce the probability of a deeper fall while not removing that risk.
Recovery Levels Form Near $75K to $79K
On the upside, the first recovery area sits between $75,000 and $79,000, where several market references are clustered. These include the short-term holder cost basis, the True Market Mean, and the 200-day moving average.
A move back into that zone would show that Bitcoin is attempting to repair market structure after its drawdown. Rafael identified the 50-week moving average near $93,000 as the next major level to watch if the recovery gains strength.
The analysis remains framed around probability rather than certainty. Rafael said investors should view the levels as valuation references, not as guaranteed turning points.
U.S. Lawmakers Press Regulators on Crypto Capital Rules
The Bitcoin valuation debate comes as U.S. lawmakers push regulators to revisit capital rules for bank exposure to digital assets. A May 27 letter from Senators Cynthia Lummis, Dan Sullivan, Bill Hagerty, Bernie Moreno, Ted Budd, and Jon Husted urged the Federal Reserve, FDIC, and OCC to reassess standards tied to cryptoasset holdings.
The senators criticized the Basel framework that assigns some cryptoasset exposures a 1,250% risk weight. They argued that this treatment could make bank participation in Bitcoin markets economically difficult.
The lawmakers said regulators should assess digital assets based on underlying risk, similar to recent treatment of tokenized securities. Recent agency actions show regulators have already adjusted some supervisory expectations for crypto-related banking activity
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