TLDR
- The company increased its 2026 revenue forecast to €43–€45 billion from a prior range of €36–€40 billion
- Second-quarter revenue reached €9.3 billion with gross margins at 54%, exceeding company projections
- Earnings per share landed at $8.68 per ADR, beating the $7.92 analyst consensus by approximately 9.6%
- Production capacity for Low-NA EUV systems will grow 30% in 2027, with another potential 30% boost under review for 2028
- Analysts maintain a unanimous Strong Buy rating with a mean price target of $2,421, suggesting roughly 38.5% potential gains
On July 15, ASML unveiled second-quarter financial results that significantly exceeded its own projections, subsequently elevating its 2026 full-year forecast for the second consecutive time.
Quarterly revenue totaled €9.326 billion, representing a 21.2% year-over-year increase from €7.692 billion in the same period last year. This figure exceeded both management’s guided range of €8.4–€9.0 billion and the Street consensus of €8.80 billion.
Net profit stood at €2.918 billion for the quarter. The American Depositary Receipt delivered earnings of $8.68 per share, surpassing analyst expectations of $7.92 by approximately 9.6%. Shares have climbed about 69% since the start of the year and roughly 145% over the trailing twelve months, currently trading around $1,748.
The most notable outperformance originated from the Installed Base Management business — encompassing service contracts and equipment upgrades at existing customer facilities. This segment generated €2.762 billion in revenue, approximately €300 million above forecasted levels. The favorable service product mix contributed to gross margins reaching 54%, surpassing the 51%–52% guidance band.
Systems revenue totaled €6.6 billion, with €3.8 billion derived from EUV equipment and €2.8 billion from non-EUV systems. Logic applications accounted for 51% of revenue while Memory represented 49%. ASML also recognized sales from one High-NA EUV unit during the three-month period.
Outlook Gets a Major Upgrade
The semiconductor equipment maker elevated its 2026 annual revenue projection to €43–€45 billion with anticipated gross margins of 54%–56%. This represents a substantial increase from the April guidance of €36–€40 billion and 51%–53% margins. The midpoint suggests approximately 35% growth compared to 2025’s €32.7 billion in sales.
Third-quarter guidance calls for €11–€12 billion in revenue with margins between 55%–57%. Compared to the €9.3 billion just delivered, the midpoint represents sequential revenue expansion exceeding 20%.
Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet noted that order momentum stayed “extremely strong” through the first six months, as customers accelerated expansion plans fueled by artificial intelligence demand for cutting-edge logic and memory semiconductors.
Capacity Expansion Is the Real Story
ASML intends to boost Low-NA EUV production capability from approximately 65 units in 2026 to roughly 78–80 systems in 2027 — representing a 30% jump. This enhanced capacity is already nearly fully reserved through advance orders. Momentum for 2028 deliveries continues building, leading the company to evaluate an additional 30% capacity increase.
Deep ultraviolet immersion system capacity, presently around 130 units annually, is being prepared for identical expansion increments in 2027 and possibly 2028.
Within the Memory sector specifically, ASML now projects net system revenue to climb more than 75% this year as DRAM manufacturers expand high-bandwidth memory and advanced DDR production capabilities.
Intel’s deployment of High-NA EUV technology on select 18A Panther Lake processor layers represents ASML’s next-generation platform entering volume manufacturing.
The stock currently commands a valuation around 40x the consensus 2026 EPS forecast of $43.34, which implies approximately 49% earnings expansion from 2025 levels. The Street’s average twelve-month price objective stands at $2,421.36, supported by eight unanimous Buy recommendations with zero Hold or Sell ratings.
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