Key Highlights
- Shares of SpaceX advanced 0.8% to $141.14 during Monday’s premarket session with a significant share unlock scheduled for Aug. 20
- Approximately 319 million insider-owned shares become tradable on Aug. 20, part of a broader unlock totaling 4.9 billion shares by December
- After dipping under $105 in July, the stock recovered following impressive Q2 results released on Aug. 4
- UBS maintained its Buy recommendation with a $210 price objective, highlighting Starlink expansion and femtocell technology prospects
- Second-quarter revenue reached $7.8 billion, representing 92% year-over-year growth, while AI-focused revenue skyrocketed 247% to $1.6 billion
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) advanced 0.8% to $141.14 during Monday’s premarket session, as investors prepare for a substantial insider share unlock scheduled for Aug. 20.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Approximately 319 million shares currently held by founding investors and company insiders will become tradable later this week. This release represents one stage of a phased unlock structure that SpaceX implemented after going public in early June.
The company generated approximately $75 billion through its initial public offering, issuing roughly 556 million new shares to public investorsāa relatively modest portion of the total 13.2 billion outstanding shares.
Market supply-demand forces have significantly influenced early trading patterns. Anticipation of potential selling pressure from early stakeholders prompted investor caution, driving shares beneath $105 in July, substantially below the $135 offering price.
The stock staged a robust recovery following SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings announcement on Aug. 4. Shares surged 23% during that week, followed by an additional 5% gain the subsequent week, ending a four-week decline.
Second-quarter revenue totaled $7.8 billion, marking a 92% year-over-year increase. AI-related revenue proved particularly impressive, climbing 247% to $1.6 billion, fueled by new Cloud Services Agreements.
UBS Maintains Buy Rating at $210 Price Target
UBS analyst John Hodulik reaffirmed his Buy rating and $210 price objective on Monday. He highlighted SpaceX‘s dual role as both a significant cloud infrastructure provider and cutting-edge AI model developer as core strengths supporting his thesis.
The investment bank anticipates a growth acceleration when SpaceX achieves sufficient deployment of V3 fixed broadband satellites, projected for sometime in 2026. UBS’s current projections forecast U.S. Starlink subscribers expanding from 3 million currently to 6 million by late 2027, ultimately reaching 20 million by the conclusion of 2031.
During its recent earnings presentation, SpaceX outlined a femtocell initiative involving the integration of compact radios into next-generation Starlink terminals. This approach aims to address coverage gaps that the V2 mobile LEO satellite constellation cannot effectively serve, particularly in densely populated urban environments and interior building spaces.
UBS identified two critical success factors for this strategy: obtaining suitable low-band spectrum licenses and establishing sufficient deployment density. Prospective spectrum acquisition opportunities include 800 MHz frequencies sold by T-Mobile to Grain, 700 MHz E Block spectrum controlled by Echostar, and 900 MHz bands owned by NextNav and Anterix.
Additional Share Unlocks Scheduled Through December
Analyst sentiment remains divided. Phillip Securities held a Sell rating with a $75 price objective, expressing skepticism about the sustainability of the company’s revenue expansion despite impressive recent figures.
Morgan Stanley sustained an Overweight rating with a $300 price target, while Mizuho maintained its Outperform recommendation, citing advancement on the Grok 4.6 AI model development.
SpaceX also finalized its $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, which now operates as a wholly owned subsidiary.
More than 700 million shares will unlock in September, with over 650 million additional shares following in October. By year’s end, approximately 4.9 billion shares will be available for trading, representing roughly 70% of equity not controlled by Elon Musk.
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