Bitcoin (BTC) Surges Past $61K Following Disappointing U.S. Employment Report

TLDR

Table of Contents

Bitcoin surged past $61,000 following June nonfarm payroll data showing only 57,000 jobs added versus 115,000 expected
Jobless rate dropped to 4.2%, creating mixed signals for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions
Probability of Fed rate increase in 2026 fell to 50%, declining from 54% one day earlier
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. attracted $221.7 million in net capital on July 2, breaking a 10-session withdrawal pattern
BTC is positioned for a 3% weekly advance following recovery from a 21-month floor under $58,000

Bitcoin pushed above the $61,000 threshold Friday following disappointing U.S. employment figures that diminished expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate increases. The rally positions Bitcoin for a 3% gain over the trading week.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, employers added merely 57,000 positions during June. This figure significantly missed the consensus projection of 115,000 new jobs. Additionally, May’s employment numbers underwent a downward revision of 43,000 positions.

The jobless rate registered at 4.2%, coming in marginally below the anticipated 4.3%. Despite appearing favorable, this metric reveals an employment landscape still undergoing transformation.

Bitcoin was changing hands near $61,632 during early Friday trading, representing approximately a 1.9% daily increase. Earlier during the week, BTC had fallen beneath $58,000 — marking its weakest price point in 21 months.

Market analyst Ted Pillows offered perspective on the price movement, characterizing it as a relief-driven bounce. He posted on X: “$BTC is now above the $60,000 level. This is just a relief rally, which often happens after a 30% crash. Bitcoin’s key levels are $62,700 and $65,000, which must be reclaimed for another lower high before a new cycle low.” His observations capture the cautious sentiment among market participants monitoring whether BTC can sustain current levels.

$BTC is now above the $60,000 level.
This is just a relief rally, which often happens after a 30% crash.
Bitcoin’s key levels are $62,700 and $65,000, which must be reclaimed for another lower high before a new cycle low. pic.twitter.com/AxgpX2aNXx
— Ted (@TedPillows) July 2, 2026

Bitcoin declined over 30% during the initial half of 2026, representing its most challenging six-month period in recent memory. Diminished institutional appetite was identified as a primary driver.

ETF Capital Returns Following 10-Session Withdrawal Period

Markets received a boost from renewed ETF participation. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered net capital inflows totaling $221.7 million on July 2, based on SoSoValue tracking. This development terminated a 10-session sequence of net redemptions.

Bitcoin Spot ETFs See $222M Net Inflow After 10-Day Outflow Streak
On July 2 (ET), Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $222 million, turning positive after 10 consecutive days of net outflows. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $29.08 million. pic.twitter.com/LP3UjuQPJV
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 3, 2026

These persistent outflows had pressured valuations throughout June. The reversal suggests renewed appetite from institutional market participants.

Federal Reserve Rate Increase Expectations Decline

The likelihood of a Fed rate increase has adjusted in response to the employment data. Polymarket information indicates a 50% probability of a hike occurring this year, down from 54% during the prior session.

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Source: Polymarket

CME FedWatch analytics indicate an 82.4% probability that the Fed will maintain current rates at the July FOMC gathering, rising from approximately 72% the previous day.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, delivering remarks at the ECB Forum Thursday, noted that inflationary pressures were moderating. He avoided providing concrete guidance regarding the rate trajectory.

A majority of Fed policymakers had indicated support for at least one rate increase this year following the June FOMC gathering. Market observers currently anticipate rates will remain unchanged in July, with any possible increase delayed until December at the earliest.

The CME FedWatch instrument displayed an 82.4% likelihood of rates remaining static at the upcoming policy meeting.