TLDR
- XRP price recently declined below $2.35 but is now recovering
- CME Group launched XRP futures on May 19, recording $1.5 million in first-day trading volume
- Technical indicators show resistance near $2.40-$2.42 levels
- Cash-settled XRP futures are benchmarked to CME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate
- CFTC’s classification of XRP as a commodity helped pave the way for CME listing and potential spot XRP ETFs
XRP (XRP) has been experiencing price volatility while simultaneously achieving a milestone with its debut on the CME futures market. The cryptocurrency recently faced a downward trend but has begun showing signs of recovery as the market digests this institutional development.
XRP price started a fresh decline below the $2.45 zone, moving downward to test support around $2.28. The price formed a low at $2.2848 before attempting to recover.
The recovery has pushed XRP back above the $2.35 level and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. This represents a move above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downward movement.
Despite this recovery, XRP faces technical resistance near the $2.40 level. A bearish trend line has formed with resistance at this level on the hourly chart.
The first major resistance is positioned near $2.42, which is close to the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $2.449 swing high to the $2.848 low.
If XRP breaks above the $2.42 resistance, the next targets would be $2.50, followed by $2.60, and potentially $2.65 or $2.68 in the near term. The major hurdle for bulls stands at $2.80.
CME Futures Launch
In a development that could impact future price action, XRP futures contracts began trading on CME Group’s derivatives platform on May 19. The contracts recorded approximately $1.5 million in trading volume during their first session.
🚨 BREAKING: $XRP and Micro $XRP Futures due to go live on CME today pic.twitter.com/1prX2xpBls
— Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) May 19, 2025
Early reporting data from CME showed trading activity split between standard and micro contracts. There were 4 standard contracts traded, each representing 50,000 XRP, totaling around $480,000 in notional volume at an average price of $2.40.
The majority of activity came from 106 micro contracts, which represent 2,500 XRP each. These micro contracts accounted for over $1 million in additional volume.
The contracts are cash-settled and benchmarked to the CME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate, which is published daily at 4:00 P.M. London time.
CME’s dual contract structure aims to attract both institutional players and smaller market participants. This approach offers flexibility for various hedging and trading strategies.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse highlighted the importance of this development, posting on X: “The launch of regulated XRP Futures on @CMEGroup marks a key institutional milestone for XRP.” He also noted that Hidden Road executed the first block trade.
Market Outlook
If XRP fails to clear the $2.42 resistance zone, another decline could begin. Initial support is positioned near $2.35, with the next major support level at $2.32.
Should there be a downside break and close below the $2.32 level, the price might continue declining toward the $2.20 support. The next major support level sits near $2.12.
Technical indicators show mixed signals. The MACD for XRP/USD is losing pace in the bearish zone, while the RSI is now above the 50 level, suggesting some bullish momentum.
The CFTC’s classification of XRP as a commodity cleared the regulatory path for CME to offer these futures products. This regulatory clarity has led some analysts to suggest that a spot XRP ETF could be on the horizon.
ETF Store president Nate Geraci commented that with CFTC-regulated contracts now trading, spot XRP ETFs are “only a matter of time.”
CME-traded XRP futures are now *live*…
CFTC-regulated contracts on XRP.
Spot XRP ETFs only a matter of time. pic.twitter.com/MOhHtoGWbs
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) May 19, 2025
While the initial trading volumes for XRP futures may appear modest, the inclusion on CME expands market dynamics for price discovery, similar to how Bitcoin and Ethereum futures impact their respective markets when U.S. trading begins.
The price of XRP currently stands at around $2.40 as the market continues to react to these developments.
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