Grayscale Reports Bitcoin Trading Beneath Historical Average Valuation Levels

Key Points

Table of Contents

Bitcoin descended beneath the $60,000 threshold, marking a fresh cycle low.
Grayscale’s analysis indicates Bitcoin pricing falls below historical average valuation.
The assessment relies on a composite indicator combining three on-chain metrics.
Key metrics encompass unrealized gains and losses alongside coin-days destroyed benchmarks.
Current pricing maintains elevation above discount levels observed during the FTX collapse.

Bitcoin descended beneath the $60,000 mark this week, establishing a new cycle low. Grayscale examined whether Bitcoin currently presents discounted buying opportunities. The firm’s analysis confirms undervaluation while noting that prices maintain distance from previous bear market extremes.

On-Chain Analysis Reveals Bitcoin Pricing Below Historical Norms

Grayscale constructed its assessment using a composite on-chain valuation framework. The firm synthesized three distinct data streams into a unified weighted indicator. This framework benchmarks present pricing against long-term network activity patterns.

🆕 Grayscale Research: Is Bitcoin cheap yet?

After hitting a new cycle low of ~$60K, onchain valuation metrics say undervalued, but not as cheap as past cycle lows.

Identifying the bottom comes down to two catalysts:
↳ CLARITY Act
↳ How levered $BTC holders hold up.

Read… pic.twitter.com/9HbD65oXWM

— Grayscale (@Grayscale) June 9, 2026

The initial component monitors aggregate unrealized gains and losses throughout the Bitcoin holder base. This calculation contrasts market pricing with the collective on-chain acquisition cost. Data reveals holders currently approach break-even positions compared to recent market peaks.

The second component evaluates pricing against a sustained historical benchmark. This benchmark derives from coin-days destroyed measurements throughout the network. The data captures spending behavior patterns among coins held for extended periods.

The third component assesses price positioning relative to historical network valuation trajectories. Grayscale’s blended composite positions Bitcoin beneath its historical average threshold. The analysis indicates Bitcoin trades within undervalued territory based on these combined metrics.

Grayscale emphasized that current pricing maintains elevation above previous collapse thresholds. The firm referenced the FTX aftermath as a comparative benchmark. That period exhibited significantly steeper discount levels across valuation metrics.

Market Dynamics and Regulatory Developments Under Examination

Grayscale suggested the present correction may exhibit less severity compared to earlier bear cycles. The firm attributes this outlook to a comparatively subdued bull phase. Evolving market infrastructure represents another contributing factor.

The analysis highlighted leverage exposure as a critical variable for immediate price trajectory. Large institutional holders carrying borrowed positions face potential balance sheet constraints. Forced liquidation events could intensify selling pressure during leverage unwinding scenarios.

Grayscale referenced the CLARITY Act within its market assessment. The firm identified regulatory advancement as a potential directional catalyst. Legislative deliberations continue advancing through Senate proceedings.

The report indicated that CLARITY Act outcomes carry implications for investor sentiment. Congressional representatives maintain active debate regarding digital asset regulatory frameworks. Final Senate voting remains pending on this legislation.

Grayscale’s conclusion affirms that on-chain evidence supports a value investment thesis at current levels. The firm emphasized that sustainable price recovery depends on leverage resolution and regulatory clarity. Bitcoin maintained trading activity below $60,000 when the analysis was published.

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