TLDR
- XRP price has recovered from its April 7 low of $1.61 but faces resistance at $2.20
- Negative funding rates and low open interest in futures markets suggest bearish sentiment
- XRP is trading below 50-day and 100-day SMAs but above the 200-day SMA at $1.86
- Bulls need to push XRP above $2.00 resistance to extend gains
- Technical indicators show mixed signals with some bullish momentum forming
XRP price has been on a recovery path after hitting a low of $1.61 on April 7. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $2.01, showing signs of improvement but still facing key resistance levels. The market is watching closely to see if this recovery can be sustained or if further downside is on the horizon.
The recent price action shows XRP managed to stage a 21.5% rally on April 9, but this upward movement was halted around the $2.20 level. This price zone has proven to be a stubborn resistance level, having also rejected a previous attempt on April 5.
Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators
The futures market for XRP reveals concerning signs for bulls. Funding rates have remained negative since early February, indicating that short sellers are paying long holders. This pattern typically suggests bearish market sentiment dominates trading activity.
Open interest in XRP futures has declined substantially. From a local peak of $7.87 billion on January 17, it has dropped to $3.06 billion as of April 10. This decrease points to traders exiting positions and less capital flowing into the market.
Assets with declining open interest often struggle to maintain upward momentum. For XRP, this lack of market participation could mean that even minor selling pressure might trigger further downside movement.
On the technical side, XRP is trading below both the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This positioning generally signals bearish conditions in the medium term.
However, the 200-day SMA at $1.86 is currently providing support for the price. This long-term moving average often acts as a key psychological level for traders.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the midline, further supporting the view that market conditions favor downside movement.
Bull Case Scenario
Analyst Trader Edge suggest that bulls need to push price above $2.10 and hold it as support. This opens the door for a move towards the range Point of Control at $2.40.
$XRP failed to get above the range Value Area Low (VAL) at $2.10 on Wednesday
If bulls flip this level into support, we could see a push toward $2.40 🚀
Failure to get above, could see another sweep of the lows pic.twitter.com/gsnDeKAgVk
— Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) April 11, 2025
Bear Case Scenario
If XRP fails to break above the $2.00 resistance, another decline may be in store. Initial support sits at $1.95, followed by a stronger support level at $1.92.
A break below $1.92 could lead to further decline toward $1.90 and potentially $1.85. The 200-day SMA at $1.86 represents a critical support level to watch.
Should XRP close below the 200-day SMA, it would likely retest the recent low of $1.61. Some analysts, including veteran trader Peter Brandt, have suggested that XRP could fall even lower toward $1.07 if key support levels fail.
The hourly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is gaining pace in the bullish zone, while the hourly RSI is now above the 50 level. These short-term indicators suggest some positive momentum is building, despite the overall cautious outlook.
XRP has shown resilience by staying above the $1.78 support zone and has started fresh increases similar to movements seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum. This correlation with larger cryptocurrencies could provide some support if the broader market continues to recover.
Traders should watch the $2.00 level closely as it represents the immediate hurdle for bulls. A sustained move above this price point would improve the short-term outlook, while failure to break this resistance could trigger another round of selling.
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