Why Moderna (MRNA) Stock Fell 18% on Good Cancer Vaccine News

TLDR

Table of Contents

Moderna (MRNA) stock closed Thursday at $202.63, down 18%, after trial data leaked early. The drop reached 26% at its worst.
Merck confirmed the leak. The vaccine plus Keytruda cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42%.
Over $17 billion in market value vanished after a near fourfold run since mid-August.
Support sits near $174. A break lower puts $116 in focus.
Premarket Friday, the stock was down about 3%. Full data is due Saturday in Madrid.

Moderna (MRNA) stock ended Thursday at $202.63, down 18%. At its lowest point, the drop hit 26%, the biggest intraday fall on record.

Moderna, Inc., MRNA

Premarket trading Friday pointed lower again, at $195.90, down about 3%. Moderna lost more than $17 billion in market value on Thursday.

Good news, bad day. Late-stage melanoma data leaked online before its planned debut, and Merck, Moderna’s partner, confirmed it.

What the Leaked Data Showed

The trial, INTerpath-001, tested the personalized vaccine plus Keytruda against Keytruda alone. It enrolled 1,137 patients who had surgery for melanoma.

The combination cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42%. The risk of the cancer spreading or death fell 38%.

After two years, 82.2% of patients on the combination were alive and cancer-free. For Keytruda alone, the figure was 70%.

Merck said no new safety issues were flagged. An earlier, smaller trial showed a 49% cut, but it used different patients, so the two are not a direct comparison.

So why the sell-off? Moderna had nearly quadrupled from mid-August through Wednesday, when it posted its highest close since December 2021.

The run began Aug. 19, when the stock jumped 177% to close at $174.38. That came after the company said the trial met its goals.

Thursday was its worst day since Aug. 20. Moderna is still up 551% this year and sits about 18% below its 52-week high of $245.81.

Chart Levels to Watch

The six-month chart shows the stock stuck between roughly $50 and $80 until the Aug. 19 gap higher. It then climbed to about $246 by Oct. 21, and Thursday’s drop dented that uptrend.

Support sits near $174, the record August close. Thursday’s low came within 4% of it before buyers stepped in, and the next level is $116, where the gap began.

What to watch: holding above $174 keeps the post-gap uptrend intact, while a sustained break below it could open the door to $116.

Merck fell nearly 4% at its low, then recovered more than half of that loss. The vaccine is central to Moderna but an add-on for Merck.

Other healthcare names rose. Eli Lilly added more than $33 billion in market value, and Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer also gained.

The iShares Biotechnology ETF and SPDR S&P Biotech ETF were only slightly lower, moving about in line with the S&P 500. Moderna has had 65 moves above 5% in the past year.

The full data is due Saturday at the European Society for Medical Oncology meeting in Madrid. Investors will look closely at how lower-risk patients fared.

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