TLDR
- Trump leads election predictions with 66% probability across major forecasting platforms
- Trump Media stock surged 141% in October, reaching $38.95 from $16.16
- MAGA meme coin increased 29.32% this month
- Altcoin market share dropped from 10.27% to 9.26% in October
- Ethereum shows volatility, falling from peak of $2,746 to around $2,500
October 28, 2024 marks a notable shift in both election forecasts and related market movements, with prediction platforms showing Donald Trump leading in the upcoming U.S. presidential race.
Multiple forecasting services now place Trump ahead of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, while assets connected to the former president show strong gains.
Prediction markets paint a clear picture of Trump’s current electoral standing. Polymarket, a leading forecasting platform, gives Trump a 66.1% chance of victory compared to Harris’s 33.9%.
This assessment aligns with other major forecasting services, including The Economist at 54%, Silver Bulletin at 53.3%, and FiveThirtyEight at 52.9%. RealClearPolitics shows an even stronger position for Trump at 61.3%.
The swing states, often crucial in determining election outcomes, are trending in Trump’s favor according to Polymarket data.
Arizona shows a 73% probability of a Trump win, while Georgia stands at 74%. Nevada and Pennsylvania indicate 64% and 62% chances respectively, with Wisconsin at 58% and Michigan at 53%.
These forecasts represent a departure from previous election cycles. In both 2016 and 2020, major prediction platforms underestimated Trump’s chances of victory. Current data suggests clearer voter preferences, with more consistent signals across different forecasting methods.
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp, the former president’s media company, has experienced substantial growth during this period.
The stock price rose from $16.16 at the start of October to $38.95, marking a 141.02% increase within the month. This surge coincides with Trump’s improving election prospects.
The cryptocurrency market has also seen movement in Trump-themed assets. The MAGA meme coin, inspired by Trump’s campaign slogan, recorded a 29.32% gain in October. This growth stands out against the broader crypto market’s mixed performance.
Looking at the top ten cryptocurrencies, only Bitcoin, USDC, Dogecoin, and Tron posted positive returns over the past 30 days.
The altcoin market, excluding the top ten cryptocurrencies, showed weakness during this period. Altcoin market dominance decreased from 10.27% to 9.26%, representing a 10.9% decline over the month.
In the meme coin sector, growth remained limited to select tokens. Besides Dogecoin, only Dogwifhat, Popcat, and Cat in a Dog’s World showed positive momentum during this timeframe.
Ethereum’s price movements in October illustrate the broader market’s volatility. Starting the month at $2,601.77, Ethereum dropped to $2,350 by October 3. The cryptocurrency struggled between October 4 and 13 before recovering past its monthly starting price.
Mid-month saw Ethereum reach its October peak at $2,746 on the 20th. However, prices have since declined by approximately 10%, settling around $2,500. This pattern reflects ongoing market uncertainty and resistance to sustained price increases.
The correlation between Trump’s election odds and market movements appears strongest in directly related assets, such as Trump Media stock and MAGA-themed cryptocurrencies. However, the broader crypto market shows less direct connection to these political indicators.
October’s market data reveals a clear divide between Trump-linked assets and the general cryptocurrency market. While Trump-related investments showed strong gains, most cryptocurrencies experienced either modest growth or declines.
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