TLDR
- Tesla stock closed Tuesday at $373.71, up 2%, then rose 2.2% to $382.15 after hours.
- Musk said Tesla and SpaceX each formed an independent special committee to weigh a merger.
- A deal would need a yes vote from at least 50% of all outstanding Tesla stock.
- Ark Invest set a $4,400 base-case target for 2031, with $5,000 bull and $3,300 bear cases.
- RBC floated a $480 per share SpaceX deal, and Cantor Fitzgerald kept its $485 target.
Tesla (TSLA) stock finished Tuesday at $373.71, up $5.65 or 2%. Trading did not stop there.
After the bell, the stock rose another 2.2% to $382.15. The move followed Elon Musk’s comments on SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings call.
Musk said both SpaceX and Tesla have set up independent special committees. Their job is to weigh a possible merger.
Merger Review Takes Shape
Musk called a combination a “good idea.” He also said no terms are settled.
Any deal would need a yes vote from at least 50% of all outstanding Tesla stock. That is a high bar to clear.
RBC sketched a hypothetical all-stock deal with SpaceX buying Tesla at $480 a share. That would put the combined value at $3.74 trillion.
Cantor Fitzgerald kept its Overweight rating and $485 price target on Tesla. It did so ahead of Wednesday’s earnings report.
Options traders were leaning bullish. The put-to-call ratio on near-term contracts was 0.47.
SpaceX stock set the tone, rising 8% in after-hours trading after its own quarterly results. The Nasdaq added 0.8% and the S&P 500 rose 0.3% in the regular session.
Ark Raises the Long-Term Bar
Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest published a note with a $4,400 base-case target for Tesla in 2031. Its bull case is $5,000 and its bear case is $3,300.
Ark expects robotaxis to make up about 80% of Tesla’s enterprise value in 2031. Its 2024 model put that figure near 90% for 2029.
The firm thinks Optimus robot-as-a-service could pick up as robotaxis spread. Terafab is also part of its assumptions.
Ark said a SpaceX and Tesla merger could happen within five years. It sees a combined $3.8 trillion in revenue and $2.7 trillion in EBIT by 2031.
SpaceX would supply about 62% of the revenue and 69% of the EBIT in that estimate. Ark’s own model still treats Tesla as a standalone company.
Tesla unveiled its redesigned Roadster last week at SpaceX’s test site in McGregor, Texas. The car drove upside down on a ramp and flipped in midair, so nobody could call it boring.
Musk claims 0 to 60 mph in under a second and a top speed of 230 mph. Production begins in 2028, with deposits of $50,000 for Performance and $250,000 for Thrust.
Tesla reports earnings Wednesday, with the stock trading near $382 in after-hours action.
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