Key Takeaways
- SpaceX (SPCX) shares finished Monday at $145.47, declining 3% during the trading session.
- The company’s Starship vehicle achieved orbit for the first time on its 14th test flight, successfully releasing 26 Version 3 Starlink satellites.
- An upper stage engine malfunction occurred during ascent, resulting in a truncated mission timeline.
- TD Cowen initiated coverage with a buy recommendation and $200 price objective, highlighting AI compute leasing expansion.
- Analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive, with 76% buy ratings far exceeding the S&P 500’s typical coverage.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) finished Monday’s session at $145.47, representing a 3% decline. The pullback occurred immediately following the historic achievement of Starship reaching orbital velocity for the first time.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
This 14th test flight represented a critical breakthrough for the reusable launch system. During the mission, the vehicle successfully delivered 26 upgraded Version 3 Starlink satellites to their designated orbit.
Previous Starship test flights had failed to achieve the velocity necessary for orbital insertion. This mission demonstrated the capability to maintain altitude long enough to complete a full satellite deployment sequence.
A single engine on the upper stage experienced a failure during the ascent phase. The company continued with the orbital attempt despite this setback, although the overall mission duration was reduced from original projections.
Immediately following liftoff, SpaceX shares surged to an intraday peak of $150.80. However, these gains evaporated by mid-morning, and the stock retreated throughout the remainder of the trading day.
Understanding the Post-Success Decline
Market participants had largely anticipated a successful outcome for this particular test flight. The abbreviated mission profile provided some traders with justification to realize gains.
Broader market weakness also played a role, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posting approximately 1% losses. SpaceX shares underperformed these benchmark indices.
SpaceX maintains its dominant position in global launch services. The company executed 165 Falcon 9 missions throughout 2025 and projects a comparable launch frequency for the current year.
Chief Executive Elon Musk indicated via social media that hourly Starship operations could materialize within two to three years. Such launch frequency would position SpaceX with significant cost advantages relative to terrestrial data center infrastructure.
Analyst Community Embraces AI Revenue Narrative
TD Cowen launched coverage of SpaceX shares Monday with a buy rating and $200 price objective. The research firm emphasized the company’s ground-based AI compute leasing operations as the most rapidly expanding revenue category.
Major technology firms including Google and Anthropic have already contracted for this leasing capacity. TD Cowen projects AI compute leasing will constitute the majority of SpaceX’s total revenue by Q1 2027.
The company generated $23 billion in revenue during the trailing twelve-month period. Wall Street forecasters are modeling 144% revenue expansion for fiscal year 2026.
TD Cowen’s bullish stance is shared across the Street. CLSA simultaneously initiated coverage with a buy rating and more aggressive $250 price target.
Additional research firms have reinforced positive outlooks in recent weeks. Bernstein SocGen forecasts Starlink’s broadband operations will generate approximately $64 billion in annual revenue by 2031.
Mizuho maintained its outperform rating as well, emphasizing SpaceX’s ability to command premium pricing. William Blair and Clear Street similarly expressed confidence following the Starship orbital achievement.
The stock enjoys exceptional analyst support relative to broader market coverage. Approximately 76% of analysts covering SpaceX maintain buy ratings, substantially higher than the 55% to 60% typical for S&P 500 constituents.
The consensus analyst price target for SpaceX shares stands around $224. This represents considerable upside from Monday’s closing price.
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