TLDR
- Bernstein raised Robinhood’s price target to $160 while keeping an Outperform rating on HOOD stock.
- Prediction markets could surpass crypto as Robinhood’s revenue line in the second quarter of 2026.
- Rothera already processed more than 3.5 billion contracts after launching in late May, Bernstein said.
- Bernstein cut Robinhood’s 2026 crypto revenue estimate by 49% after softer first-half volumes this year.
- Robinhood Chain crossed $400 million in total value locked after its July 1 launch date.
Robinhood stock is back in focus after Bernstein raised its price target to $160, citing rapid growth in prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenized equities, and Robinhood Chain. Analysts expect event contracts to overtake crypto revenue as the broker expands beyond traditional trading and reaches millions of retail investors this cycle.
Bernstein Raises Robinhood Price Target
Bernstein raised its Robinhood price target to $160 from $130 while keeping an Outperform rating. The firm said Robinhood is well placed to benefit from new trading markets.
Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani pointed to a fee pool worth more than $70 billion. That opportunity includes prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenized equities, and compute-linked contracts.
Bernstein said Robinhood’s advantage comes from distribution. The broker can launch new products across 27 million funded accounts and 14 million monthly active users without high customer acquisition costs.
The firm kept a 35x one-year forward earnings multiple and rolled its valuation horizon to 2028. Its new target uses a 2028 earnings-per-share estimate of $4.56, which sits 39% above consensus.
Prediction Markets May Overtake Crypto
Bernstein expects prediction markets to become a larger Robinhood revenue line than crypto in the second quarter of 2026. The firm modeled about $150 million in prediction market revenue for the quarter.
That forecast compares with about $104 million in the first quarter. Bernstein also expects crypto trading volumes to fall about 38% quarter over quarter.
The Robinhood-linked Rothera exchange has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts since launching in late May. FIFA World Cup markets accounted for about 93% of that volume.
Bernstein said Rothera has become the fourth-largest prediction venue by volume within one month. The platform accounts for about 16% of Robinhood’s event-contract volume, while the rest routes through Kalshi.
Crypto Forecast Cut as New Products Grow
Bernstein lowered its 2026 crypto trading revenue estimate by 49% because industry volumes weakened in the first half. The cut reduced its total 2026 revenue forecast by 10% to $5.3 billion.
The firm also lowered its adjusted EBITDA estimate by 19% to $2.8 billion. Its 2026 earnings-per-share forecast fell to $2.05 from an earlier $2.65.
Even with that cut, Bernstein described crypto weakness as cyclical rather than structural. The firm said any Bitcoin price recovery could add upside not included in its base model.
Bernstein also expects prediction markets, perpetual futures, and Robinhood Chain to grow as new revenue sources. These products could contribute 18% of total revenue in 2027 and 23% in 2028, up from about 3% in 2025.
Robinhood Chain, built on Arbitrum, went live on July 1 and crossed $400 million in total value locked. The chain is tracking about $200 billion in annualized decentralized exchange volume and roughly $50 million in annualized fees.
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