TLDR
- Nvidia stock fell 10% to $204.64 in October after a record close of $239.24.
- ICAP Technical Analysis says a key weekly support line was “decisively broken” last week.
- The next level down could be $185.94, with a 61.8% Fibonacci drop at $92.99.
- Nvidia was up 1.6% to $207.98 ahead of the open Monday.
- Analysts keep a “Buy” consensus with a $321.47 average price target.
Nvidia (NVDA) stock is up 1.6% to $207.98 ahead of the open Monday. That follows a rough October for the chipmaker.
The stock fell 10% to $204.64 last month. It had hit a record close of $239.24 early in the month.
Shortly after that high, ICAP Technical Analysis warned of a “big, bearish, rising wedge” on the weekly chart. Its latest update is not friendly to bulls.
Chief technical strategist Walter Zimmerman said in a Sunday note that a key weekly support line was “decisively broken last week.” That was the floor traders had been watching.
What ICAP Sees Next
Zimmerman sees the next step down at $185.94. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement would sit at $92.99.
“For those who follow Nvidia as if it were a cult, that may seem absurdly low,” he said. Nvidia last traded near $93 on April 7, 2025.
“What has changed in the last 19 months? Valuations went to the outer solar system,” he added. That is one way to put it.
Bulls have one last hope. The stock needs a sustained reversal higher before it reaches $197.73.
Technical analysis is only one part of the story and leaves out fundamentals. Fears over the AI boom have also weighed on tech stocks.
The 50-day moving average is $221.74, and the 200-day is $204.24. The 12-month range runs from $164.27 to $243.37.
Earnings, Insiders and Analysts
Nvidia last reported on August 26. Revenue rose 105.9% year over year to $96.22 billion, topping the $92.27 billion estimate.
Earnings per share came in at $2.22 against a $2.09 consensus. The board also approved a $150 billion buyback on September 28.
Insiders sold about $399.5 million of stock last quarter, including CFO Colette Kress and EVP Timothy Teter under pre-arranged plans.
Central Bank & Trust Co. trimmed its Nvidia stake by 2.2% in the third quarter. Nvidia is still its largest holding at 12.4% of the portfolio.
Five analysts rate the stock Strong Buy, 49 rate it Buy, and one rates it Hold. The consensus price target is $321.47.
Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its “buy” rating on October 21. Wall Street Zen cut its rating from “strong-buy” to “buy” on October 24.
Nvidia has a market value of $4.93 trillion. Premarket Monday, the stock was trading at $207.98.
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