TLDR
- Intel (INTC) stock trades near $95.53, down 32% from its June 22 record high but up 159% this year.
- Analysts expect third-quarter adjusted earnings of 39 to 41 cents a share, up from 23 cents a year ago.
- Revenue is forecast at $16.41 billion to $16.5 billion, up about 20% from last year.
- Options pricing points to a move of up to 8%, putting the stock between roughly $88 and $103.
- BofA expects a beat and raised guidance, while UBS stays Neutral and trimmed its target to $103.
Intel (INTC) stock trades near $95.53 ahead of its third-quarter report, due after the closing bell Thursday. The stock is up about 2% on the day.
It has fallen 32% from its June 22 record high. Even so, it is up 159% since the start of the year.
Options traders expect a big reaction. Pricing points to a move of up to 8% by the end of the week.
That could lift the stock as high as $103 or drag it below $88. Not a quiet setup for a chip name.
Analysts polled by FactSet expect adjusted earnings of 41 cents a share. That compares with 23 cents a year ago.
Visible Alpha is a little lower at 39 cents. Both estimates show strong growth from last year.
Revenue is forecast to rise 20% to 21% year over year. FactSet has $16.5 billion, while Visible Alpha has $16.41 billion.
Growth in the data-center and AI segment is the main driver. That is where analysts are focused.
What Wall Street Expects
BofA Securities expects Intel to beat estimates and raise guidance. It rates the stock a Buy with a $145 price target.
Analyst Vivek Arya says average selling prices for CPUs are rising. He also points to steady demand for CPUs that power AI servers and an improving supply chain.
UBS is more cautious. Analyst Timothy Arcuri kept a Neutral rating and trimmed his target to $103 from $112.
Arcuri still wrote that the top-line setup “remains quite strong.” So the debate seems to be more about the stock than the quarter.
BofA did flag one worry. Investors may ask whether AI demand can support both higher unit sales and higher prices over time.
Analysts are split. Of the 10 tracked by Visible Alpha, four say buy, five say neutral and one says sell.
The average price target is $117. That implies about 22% upside from Wednesday’s close.
Foundry and Musk in Focus
Intel is trying to kick-start its foundry business and win chip manufacturing customers. That puts it up against Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM).
Arcuri expects more progress on EMIB-T chip packaging and the 14A manufacturing process. Both matter for the foundry’s competitiveness.
Elon Musk could also come up on the call. Intel is working with Tesla and SpaceX on the Terafab AI chip venture.
Last week, Musk floated potential breakthroughs in chip fabrication. Earlier this month, the stock slid after he said he was in talks with TSMC to help run Terafab.
Worries about client spending and Intel’s fundraising plans have also weighed on the stock lately. Intel reports after the close today.
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