TLDR
- Tesla (TSLA) stock traded at $355.80, down about 3%, while SpaceX (SPCX) fell about 7%.
- Barclays says an all-stock Tesla-SpaceX merger could be announced before Tesla’s annual meeting, due by December 6.
- SpaceX is seen as the buyer, and Musk would hold about 37% of the combined company and about 56% of the votes.
- The deal would be pitched as AI integration, tied to Robotaxi, Optimus, Grok and the Terafab project.
- Both boards, shareholders and antitrust regulators would need to approve a deal.
Tesla (TSLA) stock traded at $355.80 on Thursday, down $11.36 or about 3%. SpaceX (SPCX) fell about 7% at the same time.
The drop followed a Barclays note saying Elon Musk could announce a Tesla-SpaceX merger before December. Analyst Dan Levy sees SpaceX as the likely buyer in an all-stock deal.
Tesla stock came into the day down 18% this year. Investors have been talking about a tie-up for months, so this one has been a long time coming.
Levy said an announcement is possible before Tesla’s annual meeting, which must happen by December 6. That is only weeks away.
Timing has a catch. A deal announced in late October or early November could make shareholder approval harder at that meeting.
How Barclays Sees the Deal Working
Barclays expects Tesla holders to receive SpaceX stock. Using market values of $2.1 trillion for SpaceX and $1.5 trillion for Tesla, the deal would likely carry a premium for Tesla holders.
Musk owns about 48% of SpaceX and holds about 82% of its voting power. That comes from Class B stock, which carries 10 times the votes of Class A.
His Tesla stake is roughly 20%. It drops to closer to 17% after Barclays’ assumed 45% tax rate on stock vesting in 2028.
At current values, Musk would own about 37% of the combined company. He would control about 56% of the votes.
Musk has said he wants to own about 25% of Tesla to keep influence over its AI and robotics plans. Barclays sees more control as a key reason for the deal.
AI Links and Hurdles
Barclays expects the merger to be pitched as AI integration. It would link Tesla’s Robotaxi and Optimus with SpaceX’s Grok and Macrohard.
Terafab, Musk’s planned AI-computing manufacturing project, is another driver. Tesla is building a $3 billion research facility in Austin, followed by a plant of about $16.8 billion, likely funded by both companies.
Musk has said separate board approvals for Terafab decisions could take “a while.” A merger could remove that step.
The money side is less clear. Bloomberg estimates cited by Barclays show Tesla making $12 billion in free cash flow in 2030, while SpaceX is forecast to use $17 billion.
Both boards and shareholders would need to approve a deal, and antitrust review would be required. Barclays also flagged national security questions, given SpaceX’s U.S. government contracts and Tesla’s China operations.
A deal announced apart from the annual meeting could come within six to 12 months, Barclays said. Tesla’s Roadster unveiling on October 15 is also expected to show SpaceX-developed cold-gas thrusters.
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