Key Findings
- Cryptocurrency holders anticipated 22% yearly gains compared to 7% among non-holders in 2021 research
- Exposing participants to Bitcoin’s trailing 12-month performance increased desired crypto holdings by approximately 2 percentage points
- Real cryptocurrency acquisitions climbed around 2.5 percentage points when participants viewed Bitcoin performance metrics
- Return expectations proved more predictive of crypto ownership than demographic factors including age, earnings, or sex
- Bitcoin appreciation may drive consumer spending on durable products such as electronics and household appliances
Research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland demonstrates that exposing individuals to Bitcoin’s historical performance data significantly influences their cryptocurrency investment intentions and purchasing behavior.
Released on July 14, 2026, the working paper was authored by Michael Weber, Bernardo Candia, Olivier Coibion, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko. The research analyzed repeated surveys encompassing as many as 25,000 American households each round.
During the second quarter of 2025, researchers conducted a randomized controlled trial. Survey participants received information regarding Bitcoin, the S&P 500 index, GameStop shares, or inflation projections.
Participants who viewed Bitcoin’s preceding 12-month gain of 14.3% boosted their intended cryptocurrency allocation by approximately 2 percentage points. This represented a 47% surge relative to the control group’s baseline desired allocation of 4.3%.
Behavioral changes translated into tangible action. Genuine cryptocurrency acquisitions increased by roughly 2.5 percentage points among households exposed to Bitcoin performance metrics.
Prior to the intervention, approximately 11% of survey respondents owned cryptocurrency. Researchers determined the information treatment elevated the probability of purchasing crypto by roughly 23%.
The impact was most pronounced among individuals who cited insufficient information as their primary barrier to crypto investment. Conversely, those already convinced cryptocurrency represented a poor investment demonstrated minimal behavioral shifts.
Substantial Perception Gap Between Owners and Non-Owners
The research uncovered a significant divergence in return expectations between cryptocurrency holders and non-holders.
During 2021 surveys, crypto owners providing forecasts anticipated average annual returns of 22%. Non-owners projected merely 7%.
Both cohorts exhibited substantial uncertainty. Approximately 87% of non-owners acknowledged they couldn’t estimate expected returns. Among holders, 54% expressed similar uncertainty.
By 2025, expectations moderated across both segments. Owners anticipated 13.8% returns, while non-owners projected 4.7%.
Return expectations demonstrated greater predictive power for ownership than demographic variables including age, income, gender, or net worth. Each additional percentage point in expected returns correlated with a 0.8 percentage point elevation in cryptocurrency ownership probability.
This pattern distinguishes crypto from traditional securities like stocks and bonds, where demographic characteristics typically explain ownership variations more effectively than return expectations.
Price Appreciation and Potential Feedback Dynamics
The research team outlined a potential reinforcing cycle wherein robust historical performance elevates future expectations, stimulates acquisitions, and attracts additional investors.
“Positive returns attract new participants, which raises the price further,” the researchers noted. They characterized this as a theoretical bubble mechanism rather than a definitive forecast.
Cryptocurrency Appreciation and Consumer Expenditure
The study examined whether Bitcoin price appreciation influenced household consumption patterns.
A doubling of Bitcoin’s value increased the likelihood of durable goods purchases by approximately 1.4 percentage points for households with complete crypto exposure. This translates to roughly a 7% elevation in purchase probability. The correlation proved strongest for products including computing devices and major appliances.
Researchers observed minimal impact on routine consumption. They proposed cryptocurrency gains might be perceived similarly to unexpected windfalls rather than sustained wealth accumulation.
The research indicates cryptocurrency volatility may partially reflect investor disagreement and ongoing learning processes, beyond underlying market fundamentals.
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