TLDR
- Dogecoin is trading at approximately $0.18, up 7.2% on the week
- Technical analyst Maelius predicts DOGE could reach $1 in the next wave, potentially climbing to $1.30-$1.70 later
- DOGE is holding above its 200-week EMA ($0.138) with a fresh bullish momentum cross
- Fed’s steady interest rate decision and Jerome Powell’s speech sparked recent meme coin surges
- Trade talks between US and China beginning May 10 are being viewed as a potential positive catalyst
Dogecoin, the popular meme cryptocurrency, is showing signs of a potential breakout after consolidating for nearly three years following its 2021 peak. Technical analysis and market developments suggest DOGE could be poised for a significant price move.
The DOGE/USDT pair on Binance recently printed a weekly candle at $0.1828, reflecting a 7.2% gain for the week. The price currently sits between two key moving averages: the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA-50) at $0.203 and the 200-week EMA at $0.138.
While DOGE dipped below the EMA-50 earlier this year, it has maintained support above the 200-week EMA, which crypto analyst Maelius views as crucial. This EMA sits within a broader demand zone extending from approximately $0.11 to $0.20.
Additional support comes from an ascending trend-line connecting swing lows from October 2023, August 2024, and April 2025. The most recent price pullback bounced almost exactly at the point where this trend-line meets both the 200-week EMA and the lower edge of the demand zone.
Elliott Wave Prediction
Maelius bases his bullish outlook on Elliott Wave theory, identifying a nested 1-2, 1-2 pattern. The first sequence began with a move to around $0.2288 in March 2024, retraced to $0.0805 in August, then surged to nearly $0.4843 in December. The subsequent correction to $0.1298 in April completed the second “2” phase.
$DOGE looks incredible here, despite the fact it went lower as I initially expected (was expecting EMA50 to hold).
Respecting major demand area, EMA200 as well as diagonal support and it seems like 1,2,1,2 is completed and now we head for 3rd EW (within larger 3rd).
1W WTO… pic.twitter.com/b5s7qkJ3KJ
— Maelius (@MaeliusCrypto) May 8, 2025
According to Elliott Wave principles, this double 1-2 structure typically precedes a powerful third wave. Maelius forecasts DOGE could reach approximately $1 during this third wave, followed by a corrective fourth wave below $0.70, with a final fifth wave potentially peaking between $1.30 and $1.70.
The WaveTrend Oscillator (WTO), a momentum indicator, has just produced a bullish cross on the weekly timeframe for the first time since August 2024. The histogram has shifted from deep red to neutral gray, mirroring transitions that came before previous major DOGE price increases.
From a technical perspective, the market is holding a multi-year demand zone, trading above its 200-week EMA, testing its 50-week EMA, and showing a fresh bullish momentum signal.
Macro Factors Driving Recent Surge
Both Dogecoin and Shiba Inu have seen price increases of over 4% in a recent 24-hour period. This surge followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
While steady rates typically don’t favor crypto assets, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent comments provided market clarity. Powell stated the US economy was in a good position with inflation declining, noting that tariffs were the main concern behind keeping rates steady.
Interestingly, tariff concerns have become a bullish factor for cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin, as investors view Bitcoin and other digital assets as potential hedges against these economic measures.
Bitcoin recently climbed to nearly $99,000 following Powell’s speech, which helped lift DOGE and SHIB prices as well. The upcoming US-China trade talks, set to begin on May 10, are also influencing the market positively.
Market participants are optimistic that the two largest economies might reach an agreement that would benefit meme coins and the broader crypto market. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that the US could soon establish trade agreements with 17 key trading partners, potentially offsetting negative impacts from tariffs.
Some analysts are making bold price predictions for Dogecoin. Trader Tardigrade suggested DOGE could reach $0.28 to $0.30 based on a “Diamond Bottom” reversal pattern forming on the daily chart. Another analyst, Master Kenobi, believes Dogecoin might finally reach the long-anticipated $1 level if Bitcoin maintains its bullish trend.
#Dogecoin's daily chart appears to be forming a "Diamond Bottom" Reversal Pattern, suggesting a potential shift for $Doge from a recent downtrend to an uptrend.🔥 pic.twitter.com/6aSlEfUSMg
— Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) May 6, 2025
At press time, Dogecoin was trading at $0.18445.
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