TLDR
- Costco’s U.S. comparable sales jumped 8% in September, up from 5% a year ago, marking the best month since May.
- A later Labor Day added about 50 basis points to the September number after dragging on August results.
- Mizuho’s David Bellinger says part of the gain came from one-off DoorDash and Uber Eats gift card sales plus lower-margin categories.
- Baird and Mizuho both kept Outperform ratings, with price targets of $1,100 and $1,065 respectively.
- Costco stock rose 0.3% to $945.39 Thursday and sits about 14% below its May 52-week high.
Costco Wholesale stock rose 0.3% to $945.39 on Thursday. The move came after the company posted a strong September sales report and drew fresh notes from Wall Street analysts.
Costco Wholesale Corporation, COST
Comparable sales in the U.S., excluding gas and foreign exchange, climbed 8% in September. That’s up from 5% growth a year earlier, and the best monthly number since May.
The rebound follows a slower summer stretch. Same-store sales grew 7.6% in August, 6.9% in July, and 6.3% in June.
A calendar quirk helped the headline figure. Labor Day fell a week later this year, which added roughly 50 basis points to September sales.
Costco had already flagged that the same shift caused a bit of weakness in August. September’s number shows that effect flipping in the other direction.
What’s Driving the Numbers
E-commerce sales grew 19% from a year ago. Foot traffic in U.S. stores rose nearly 4% in September, up from about 3% in August.
Globally, core comparable sales reaccelerated to 7.6% in September. That compares with a calendar-adjusted 6.1% in August, according to Baird.
Traffic gains and higher average tickets both played a part. Baird called Costco a rare mega-cap “growth staple” in its note Thursday.
Not everyone sees the number as clean, though. Mizuho analyst David Bellinger pointed to some one-time factors behind part of the strength.
Gift card sales tied to DoorDash and Uber Eats padded the total. So did growth in lower-margin categories like the food court and pharmacy.
Analyst Price Targets
Mizuho kept its Outperform rating and a $1,065 price target on the stock. Baird reiterated its own Outperform call with a $1,100 target.
Truist Securities is more cautious, holding a Hold rating and a $1,011 target. Telsey Advisory Group sits at the top end, with Outperform and a $1,135 target.
Evercore ISI also stayed at Outperform, pointing to stronger membership renewal rates. It did note that membership growth slowed to 3.8%.
Freedom Broker trimmed its target to $1,010 from $1,030 while keeping a Buy rating, citing a higher discount rate after its fiscal 2026 review. Costco now trades at a P/E ratio of 45.45 and a market cap of $417.67 billion.
InvestingPro’s model flags the stock as overvalued relative to its fair value estimate. The stock is still up nearly 10% this year, though it remains about 14% below its 52-week closing high of $1,094.32 from May 19.
Retail peers also moved Thursday. Walmart gained 1.3% and Target rose 1.1%, while Amazon slipped 0.5%.
Costco’s fiscal fourth quarter, reported last month, showed net sales of $93.87 billion, up 11.2%. Total revenue rose 11.1% to $95.72 billion.
Comparable sales for the quarter rose 9.4%, or 6.7% excluding gas and foreign exchange. Digitally enabled comparable sales jumped 19.8% on an adjusted basis.
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