TLDR
- China’s GDP grew 5.4% in Q4 2024, exceeding expectations of 5.0%
- Full-year 2024 growth reached 5.0%, above forecasts of 4.9%
- Chinese exports to US hit $48.8B in December 2024, up 16% year-over-year
- Trump plans new tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially up to 60-100%
- Traders rushing to beat potential tariff implementation after inauguration
China’s economy showed resilience in the fourth quarter of 2024, posting better-than-expected growth amid a surge in exports to the United States, as American buyers rushed to stock up before potential new tariffs under the incoming Trump administration.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China’s GDP expanded by 5.4% in the fourth quarter, surpassing economists’ predictions of 5.0% and showing improvement from the third quarter’s 4.6% growth rate. The full-year growth for 2024 reached 5.0%, slightly higher than the 4.9% forecast by analysts.
December 2024 marked a notable spike in China’s exports to the United States, reaching $48.8 billion – the highest monthly total for the year. This represents a 16% increase compared to December 2023, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs.
The export surge appears linked to concerns about President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs on Chinese goods. Throughout his campaign, Trump has suggested implementing tariffs ranging from 60% to as high as 100% on Chinese imports once he takes office.
Mary Lovely, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, noted that the December export spike likely reflects preparatory measures by traders. “We can’t see into the motives of people, but it does look like there’s some stockpiling or preordering with the expectation that there will be tariffs coming,” she explained.
The trade dynamics helped China achieve a record-high trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion in 2024, a figure that may draw increased scrutiny from the incoming US administration.
Trump’s proposed tariffs are reportedly tied to demands that China prevent the flow of illegal drugs into the United States, with plans to maintain elevated tariffs until this condition is met.
While traders and businesses are actively preparing for potential tariff increases, economists advise that stockpiling may not be practical for individual consumers, particularly for everyday items or products they might not need immediately.
The Chinese economy’s performance comes against a backdrop of ongoing demographic challenges. While the country experienced an unexpected increase in birth rates during 2024, the overall population continued to decline for the third consecutive year.
The growth in China’s GDP was particularly driven by export performance, which may face headwinds in the coming months if new tariffs are implemented after Trump’s inauguration.
The December trade figures show that US businesses are taking pre-emptive action, with many accelerating their shipments from China to avoid potential additional costs.
Economic experts suggest that the current trade patterns may shift dramatically once any new tariffs are implemented, potentially affecting both countries’ economies.
The fourth-quarter results exceeded expectations from major financial institutions, with Goldman Sachs and other analysts having projected lower growth rates for the period.
China’s economic performance in late 2024 demonstrates both the country’s economic resilience and the immediate effects of anticipated US policy changes on international trade patterns.
The latest customs data indicates that the surge in exports was broad-based across multiple sectors, though specific industry breakdowns were not provided in the official reports.
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