Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin crossed the $65,000 threshold for the first time since mid-August, rallying in tandem with recovering US equity markets
- VanEck identifies 8 out of 12 capitulation indicators as active, pointing toward a possible accumulation cycle for Bitcoin
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded approximately $300 million in net inflows on Monday, marking the highest single-day total since early May
- Technical analyst Aksel Kibar projects a potential rally to $76,000 if current momentum continues
- Bitcoin held by long-term investors fell below 60% of total supply after a decline of 356,000 BTC over the last month
Bitcoin reclaimed the $65,000 level on Tuesday, marking its first appearance above this threshold in more than a week. The move coincided with a recovery in US equities and a reduction in geopolitical concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump addressed the situation.
In a Truth Social post, Trump confirmed the Strait of Hormuz remained fully operational and that all water mines in the region had been cleared or destroyed. The S&P 500 recovered from 7,696, its weakest point since early August, providing a tailwind for risk-sensitive assets.
WTI crude oil showed minimal volatility, declining 1% to approximately $84 per barrel. Meanwhile, yields on US 30-year Treasury bonds surged to 5.34%, reaching their highest level since early 2007.
In a research memo, BNY Mellon analyst Geoff Yu noted that market participants are “demanding more compensation for inflation risk,” with increased government borrowing contributing to the yield surge.
Institutional Demand Returns Through ETF Channels
Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States saw nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday, representing the most significant daily accumulation since May 5 and indicating a resurgence in institutional appetite.
Research from VanEck, led by Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel, revealed that 8 of the 12 metrics in their “Bitcoin Capitulation Check” framework are presently triggered.
According to VanEck, all 12 indicators have touched their capitulation thresholds at various points during the past three months. The investment firm concluded that the data indicates Bitcoin is “nearing or currently in an accumulation phase.”
Technical Patterns Point to $76K Potential
Market analyst Aksel Kibar identified a developing inverse head-and-shoulders formation centered around the $62,300 price zone. His analysis suggests a bullish target of $76,000 if the pattern confirms, while a breakdown could lead to $53,000.
Cryptocurrency analyst Ted Pillows shared on X that Bitcoin is “very close to a breakout,” suggesting that a four-hour closing price above $65,000 could catalyze a move toward $68,000.
Bitcoin currently trades approximately 48% below its record high of $126,300, established in October 2025. The 50-month exponential moving average is positioned at $65,827, serving as immediate resistance.
VanEck’s research highlighted that Bitcoin’s three prior bear cycles averaged 12.7 months from peak to trough. The current downturn has lasted approximately 11 months from the October high.
Data shows long-term Bitcoin holders reduced their positions by approximately 356,000 BTC during the previous 30 days, dropping their share of total circulating supply below the 60% threshold for the first time in recent months, with 11.84 million BTC now classified as long-term holdings.
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