TLDR
- Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won the 2025 Canadian election over pro-crypto candidate Pierre Poilievre
- Poilievre lost his own Parliamentary seat to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy in Ottawa
- Liberals secured approximately 162 seats, enough for at least a minority government
- Poilievre’s early lead reversed after Trump’s tariffs and threats against Canada
- Crypto played a minimal role in the election despite Poilievre’s pro-Bitcoin stance
Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has emerged victorious in Canada’s 2025 federal election, defeating pro-crypto Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. The election results mark a stunning reversal of fortune for Poilievre, who held a commanding lead in polls for over a year before seeing his support collapse in the final weeks of the campaign.
The Liberals secured approximately 162 seats according to Elections Canada data reported by CBC, enough to form at least a minority government. Vote counting continued late into the night, with the final determination between a minority or majority government still pending at press time.
In a shocking development, Poilievre not only failed to become Prime Minister but also lost his own seat in Parliament. The Conservative leader was defeated in his Ottawa-area riding of Carleton by Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy, ending his tenure as a Member of Parliament.
Trump Factor Reshapes Race
The dramatic shift in voter sentiment appears largely connected to U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive stance toward Canada. Trump’s implementation of punitive tariffs against Canadian goods and public threats regarding Canadian sovereignty became central issues in the campaign’s final weeks.
A mid-March poll from the Angus Reid Institute found that 55% of voters believed Carney’s Liberal Party would be better equipped to handle the trade war between Canada and the U.S., compared to just 30% for the Conservatives. This sentiment grew following “Liberation Day” on April 2, when Trump issued tariffs on approximately 90 countries, including Canada.
Poilievre’s early campaign strategy had drawn numerous comparisons to Trump. His “Canada First” slogan, support for the 2022 trucker blockade, and promises to end what he called the Liberal Party’s “radical woke agenda” initially resonated with many voters but became political liabilities as tensions with the U.S. escalated.
The Conservative leader attempted to distance himself from Trump in the campaign’s final days. On election day, he tweeted that the U.S. president should “stay out of our election,” but the damage to his electoral prospects had already been done.
Crypto’s Limited Role
Despite Poilievre’s well-known support for cryptocurrency and promises to make Canada the “blockchain capital of the world,” crypto played a minimal role in the election. The issue was largely overshadowed by concerns about U.S.-Canada relations, the economy, and domestic issues.
Carney, a former governor of both the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada, had previously criticized Bitcoin. In 2018, he stated, “It is not a store of value because it is all over the map. Nobody uses it as a medium of exchange.” Instead, he expressed support for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
Prediction markets had tracked the race closely, with Polymarket reporting over $100 million in trading volume on contracts related to the Canadian election outcome. The platform showed Poilievre with an 83% chance of victory as recently as February 1, but those odds steadily declined as the campaign progressed.
By late March, prediction markets had flipped in Carney’s favor, mirroring the shift seen in traditional polling. On election day, both Polymarket and Kalshi gave Carney approximately an 80% chance of victory, a complete reversal from the beginning of the year.
If current results stand under Canada’s Westminster-inspired system, the Liberals would need support from another opposition party to pass legislation in the House of Commons. Potential partners include the separatist Bloc Quebecois or the left-leaning New Democratic Party.
The Conservatives maintained a strong showing despite Poilievre’s defeat, positioning themselves as the Official Opposition. A Conservative-led non-confidence motion with support from other parties could theoretically trigger another election, though political analysts consider this unlikely in the near term.
Final results and the formal confirmation of a minority or majority Liberal government are expected to be announced later today as vote counting concludes across Canada’s six time zones.
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