TLDR
- VanEck says 8 of 12 Bitcoin capitulation indicators are currently firing.
- Bitcoin closed August 11 at $63,549, about 49% below its all-time high.
- BTC’s 30-day realized volatility fell to 27.2%, well below its long-term average.
- Long-term holders reduced positions by about 356,500 BTC over 30 days.
- Bitcoin remains about 9% below its 200-day moving average near $69,884.
Bitcoin is trading near $63,500 as VanEck says the market may be approaching the end of its correction after eight of 12 tracked capitulation indicators moved into extreme territory. BTC remains about 49% below its all-time high, but volatility has fallen sharply as the price stabilizes above the June low.
VanEck’s mid-August Bitcoin ChainCheck shows all 12 capitulation indicators entered their respective extreme zones at some point during the past three months. Eight remain active, leading the asset manager to say Bitcoin may be nearing or entering an accumulation phase rather than extending the sharp decline seen since October 2025.
Bitcoin Capitulation Signals Point to Late-Stage Correction
Bitcoin closed August 11 at $63,549, down only 0.3% from a month earlier. The price traded between roughly $62,265 and $66,509 during that period, while 30-day realized volatility dropped to 27.2% from 30.4%.
That level remains well below Bitcoin’s long-term volatility average near 80%. VanEck says the steadier price action could mean the June 30 low near $58,500 marked the deepest point of the current correction, although the firm does not treat that level as a confirmed cycle bottom.
The current bear phase has entered its tenth month since Bitcoin peaked in October 2025. Previous Bitcoin bear markets have averaged about 11 months from peak to trough, while the last three major cycles excluding 2011 averaged roughly 12.7 months.
VanEck therefore places the historical window for an accumulation phase between September and November. The firm cautions that cycle history does not establish when the present correction will actually end.
Historical Returns After Capitulation Remain Mixed
VanEck’s capitulation framework includes market, derivatives and on-chain measures that reach historical extremes. Eight indicators currently meet its thresholds, while Bitcoin’s 49% drawdown also triggers its separate rule requiring a decline of at least 35%.
Historical results after similar clusters have not consistently produced immediate gains. When eight to 12 indicators were active, average 90-day Bitcoin returns reached 12.8%, below the broader historical baseline of 15.2%.
Average 180-day returns reached 32%, also below Bitcoin’s 36.3% baseline. One-year performance has been stronger following previous capitulation clusters, although VanEck says the sample includes relatively few independent episodes and should therefore be treated cautiously.
Spot Bitcoin ETP flows have improved during the current stabilization period. U.S. products recorded about $663 million in net inflows over 30 days, reversing the prior month’s roughly $2.4 billion in withdrawals.
Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Move 356,000 BTC
On-chain data presents another source of pressure. Bitcoin held for longer than one year fell by about 356,500 BTC, or 2.9%, over 30 days to 11.84 million BTC.
Long-term holdings now represent about 59.1% of circulating supply, dropping below 60% for the first time in months. The largest reduction came from coins aged one to two years, which fell by approximately 156,000 BTC.
Options traders also remain defensive despite lower volatility. Put premiums increased 42% month over month to $551.8 million, while call premiums declined 10% to $237.6 million, pushing the put-to-call premium ratio to a record 2.30.
Source: VanEck
Bitcoin now remains about 9% below its 200-day moving average near $69,884. A sustained recovery toward that level, combined with lower long-term holder selling, would provide the next measurable test of VanEck’s view that the correction is approaching its final stage.
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