Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin surged to $65,340 on August 7, marking its highest level for the month with a 1.3% daily increase
- July nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000 jobs, representing the first monthly contraction since February
- Probability of a September Fed rate increase fell from 55% to 42% following employment data release
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US attracted $98.85M in net inflows, extending the positive streak to five days
- Trading firm QCP Capital characterized this week’s crypto market behavior as demonstrating “resilience”
Bitcoin reached its August peak on Friday following disappointing US employment figures that altered market expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
TradingView data indicated BTC/USD touched $65,340 on the Bitstamp exchange, representing a 1.3% daily advance. Over the weekly period, Bitcoin was positioned to deliver gains exceeding 3%.
The upward movement followed a report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics revealing that nonfarm payrolls contracted by 23,000 positions in July. This figure significantly underperformed the consensus forecast of 85,000 new jobs and represented the first monthly employment decline since February.
The unemployment rate experienced a modest decline to 4.1% from the previous month’s 4.2%.
Compounding the headline disappointment, employment figures for May and June underwent downward revisions totaling 103,000 positions. These adjustments reinforced perceptions that labor market conditions are deteriorating faster than earlier assessments suggested.
Market Reassesses Fed Rate Hike Probability
Financial markets reacted swiftly to the employment report. Data from the CME FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a 0.25% rate increase at September’s Fed meeting dropped from 55% before the release to approximately 42% afterward.
As trading progressed, market consensus pivoted toward expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain current interest rates in September.
JPMorgan’s chief US economist Michael Feroli commented that the report should “marginally lower the chances of a hike at the next meeting.” He emphasized that upcoming inflation data over the next two months would carry greater weight in the Fed’s deliberations.
The S&P 500 index opened 0.5% higher following the news, while the Nasdaq composite gained slightly over 1%.
Market analyst Daan Crypto Trades observed on X that Bitcoin’s Bull Market Support Band has converged with the Weekly 200 EMA around the $69,000 zone. He suggested a closing price in the 70Ks from this level would constitute a robust market signal, adding that the current consolidation phase would ultimately result in a “large break from compression.”
ETF Inflows Maintain Momentum
US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows totaling $98.85 million on August 7, based on SoSoValue data referenced by Wu Blockchain on X. This represented the fifth consecutive trading session of positive net flows into US spot Bitcoin products. Simultaneously, US spot Ether ETFs attracted $49.60 million in inflows, marking their fourth straight day of positive activity.
QCP Capital, a prominent trading firm, characterized the week’s cryptocurrency market activity as indicating “resilience rather than clear directional confirmation.” The firm observed that events such as the Coldcard wallet security breach and Bitcoin sales by entities including Strategy triggered only limited volatility in options markets.
Bitcoin continued trading predominantly within a $62,000 to $65,000 corridor throughout the week, with the $65,340 peak marking the upper boundary of this range.
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