TLDR
- Bitcoin is trading between two major supply clusters in what analysts call a “decision point”
- BTC has dropped below $95,000 and is facing resistance at the $94,750 level with a bearish trend line
- Short-term holder Realized Price at $93,364 could serve as a macro on-chain support level
- Technical indicators show MACD gaining pace in the bearish zone with RSI below 50
- Bitcoin needs to clear the $95,750 zone to start another increase toward $96,800
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at a critical junction that analysts describe as a “decision point,” with the cryptocurrency hovering around $94,000 after experiencing a downside correction from recent highs.
On-chain analyst Checkmate highlighted that Bitcoin is trading between two major supply clusters based on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD). This metric shows a large amount of BTC supply was purchased around current price levels.
The cryptocurrency recently pulled back and is now leaning toward the lower green supply zone. This area could potentially provide support, given the substantial amount of Bitcoin purchased within this range.
Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $97,200 support zone. The price continued downward through several key support levels including $96,200 and $95,500.
The bears pushed the price even lower to $93,570 before a slight recovery began. Despite this bounce, sellers remain active near the $95,000 level.
Technical Analysis Shows Bearish Signals
Currently, Bitcoin is trading below both $95,000 and the 100-hour Simple Moving Average. This positioning suggests bearish pressure persists in the short term.
A connecting bearish trend line has formed with resistance at $94,750 on the hourly chart. This trend line represents the first hurdle Bitcoin must overcome to reverse its recent downward momentum.
The hourly MACD indicator is gaining pace in the bearish zone, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level. Both technical indicators point to continued selling pressure.
On the upside, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $94,750. Beyond that, the $95,300 level presents another challenge, followed by a more crucial resistance at $95,750.
If the price manages to close above $95,750, it could trigger a further rise toward the $96,800 level. Any additional gains might push Bitcoin toward the $98,000 mark.
On the downside, immediate support sits near $93,750, with major support at $93,500. Should these levels fail to hold, the price could decline toward $93,200, with the next major support level at $92,500.
The main support level to watch is $91,200, which could provide a stronger floor if tested.
Bitcoin’s short-term holder Realized Price is positioned at $93,364, according to CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn. This level has historically acted as a boundary between bullish and bearish trends for BTC.
Bitcoin is flirting with the Shoprt Term Holder Cost Basis from above 👀
STH Realized Price: $93,364 pic.twitter.com/hQl1V9izWE
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) May 5, 2025
One key factor that makes the current price action important is that any large move up or down from this point would affect the profit-loss status of a substantial number of addresses.
Large supply walls below the current spot price are considered potential support levels, as investors who purchased there might defend their break-even mark during a retest.
Similarly, supply zones above the current price may act as resistance, as those holders might take the opportunity to sell and recover their investment.
The next directional move could have a major impact on market sentiment. As Checkmate notes, “all it will take is one big red or green candle from here to convince people of a lower high, or bull continuation, respectively.”
In my view, it's pretty important that Bitcoin clears this price zone in the near-term.
We're sitting right in the middle of a decision point, and all it will take is one big red or green candle from here to convince people of a lower high, or bull continuation, respectively. pic.twitter.com/1XLhMOO14K
— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) May 4, 2025
Bitcoin is currently trading around $94,000, down 1.5% in the last 24 hours.
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