TLDR
- Bitcoin is trading at around $103,000, just 4% below its all-time high
- Over $312 million worth of Bitcoin (3,000 BTC) was withdrawn from Binance on May 12
- Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index sits at 70, showing strong greed but not extreme greed
- Binance’s BTC reserves have fallen from 595,000 BTC in February to 541,400 BTC by mid-May
- A new US-China trade agreement has coincided with this Bitcoin rally and outflow activity
Bitcoin is approaching its all-time high again as its price surges past $103,000. The cryptocurrency has seen a weekly price increase of 10.4% and a monthly gain of over 24%, riding a wave of optimism in both crypto and traditional markets.
The digital asset briefly crossed $105,000 before pulling back slightly to $103,000. This puts it about 4% below its January all-time high, with signs pointing to building bullish momentum.
Recent data shows large amounts of Bitcoin leaving exchanges, particularly Binance. On May 12 alone, over 3,000 BTC (worth approximately $312 million) was withdrawn from Binance, marking one of the largest daily outflows in recent months.
This major withdrawal happened on the same day as a new trade agreement between the United States and China, which also boosted US equity markets. The S&P 500 jumped more than 3% following this geopolitical development.
The outflow is part of a larger trend. Binance’s Bitcoin reserves have steadily declined from around 595,000 BTC in late February to 541,400 BTC by mid-May.
Exchange Outflows Signal Accumulation
When investors move Bitcoin off exchanges into private wallets or cold storage, it typically indicates a preference for holding rather than selling. This behavior suggests accumulation strategies are in play.
Historically, declining exchange balances point to lower selling pressure in the near term and can support a more bullish outlook for the medium term.
The timing of these withdrawals, coinciding with improved relations between two economic superpowers, adds interesting context to investor behavior. It appears Bitcoin holders are adjusting their strategies in response to this positive macro development.
With reduced global economic uncertainty, large Bitcoin holders seem to be positioning themselves for potential future gains.
Market analysts note that these movements reflect how capital is shifting across different asset classes in response to broader economic developments, showing increased risk appetite among investors.
Market Sentiment Remains Strong But Not Extreme
Despite Bitcoin’s approach toward its all-time high, the market sentiment has not yet reached extreme levels of optimism. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 70, indicating strong greed but still below the extreme greed threshold of 75.
Earlier in the month, market sentiment had cooled to neutral levels when the price rally paused. However, as prices resumed their upward march, investor mood improved once again.
The absence of extreme greed despite Bitcoin’s near-record price could actually be a positive signal for continued price growth. Historically, Bitcoin has often moved contrary to crowd sentiment, with major tops forming when extreme optimism prevails.
The fact that the Fear & Greed Index remains outside the extreme greed zone suggests that excessive hype hasn’t yet developed among investors. This could mean Bitcoin has more room to grow before reaching a market top.
Market participants appear increasingly responsive to macroeconomic signals, with coordinated movements across traditional and crypto markets suggesting a recalibration of investment strategies in light of improving global trade dynamics.
As geopolitical risks ease and traditional markets recover, Bitcoin’s reduced exchange reserves and growing off-exchange holdings may create favorable conditions for another test of its all-time high in the coming weeks.
The coming period will be crucial in determining whether current capital flows translate into a full breakout beyond previous records or lead to a period of price consolidation.
📈#Bitcoin correction started?‼️$BTC couldn't quite muster that last final push to take out the ATH yesterday, and appears to have started its correction. I'm not ruling out a last scam wick up, but it looks less likely now.
Time wise a correction should probably take a… https://t.co/4Wqr9UolGm pic.twitter.com/tGuH9AX2Wf
— AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) May 13, 2025
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