Bitcoin at Crossroads: US-China Deal Could Trigger Breakout Past $100K

TLDR

Table of Contents

Bitcoin trading above $94,000 as traders await updates on US-China trade negotiations
Resistance in the $93K-$95K range could prevent Bitcoin from reaching $100K
Asian markets closed Monday, leading to reduced trading volumes
Chinese yuan and regional currencies rallied on potential US-China trade deal
Oil prices fell after OPEC+ announced increased production, affecting market sentiment

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading relatively flat above $94,000 as market participants await updates from Beijing regarding progress on a potential trade deal with the United States. The cryptocurrency market shows cautious optimism while facing technical resistance that could determine its next major move.

Bitcoin opened the trading week hovering just above $94,000, down slightly from recent highs that approached $97,000 late last week. The CoinDesk 20 index, which measures the performance of major digital assets, was down 1.5%, trading below 2,700 points.

The cryptocurrency’s price action comes amid a backdrop of fluctuating market sentiment. “XRP and Bitcoin bounced back from the tariff shocks in April, but have yet to make a movement upwards,” Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, told CoinDesk.

Ruck suggested that investor caution regarding risk assets like cryptocurrencies may stem from the current US macroeconomic climate, despite Bitcoin’s trend breaking away from its correlation with US equities.

Monday saw major Asian markets closed, including Hong Kong, mainland China, Japan, and Korea. This led to thinner liquidity and reduced trading volumes across crypto markets.

Trade Deal Developments

The potential improvement in US-China trade relations has dominated headlines in recent days. Over the weekend, China’s Commerce Ministry announced it was reviewing a US proposal to resume negotiations, while President Trump hinted that Beijing “wanted to do a deal.”

Markets responded positively to these developments. The Chinese yuan strengthened to a six-month high near ¥7.19, and other regional currencies rallied on the news.

The New Taiwan Dollar saw the most dramatic movement, surging to a two-year high around NT$29.6 per US dollar as last week came to a close. This spike was driven by $1.4 billion in foreign equity inflows and growing confidence in Taiwan’s tech sector following TSMC’s report of a 60% jump in quarterly profits.

Despite market optimism, prediction markets on Polymarket remain skeptical. They give only a 21% chance that a trade deal will be reached by June, and a 47% chance the White House will lower tariffs by the end of May.

Technical Resistance and Market Factors

Bitcoin’s price movement faces technical challenges as it tests key levels. According to a recent Glassnode report, the cryptocurrency is struggling to break through the $93,000–$95,000 range.

This range aligns with both the short-term holder cost basis and the 111-day moving average, marking what analysts consider a crucial battleground for market momentum.

“These levels represent a critical inflection point that must be upheld. Failure to stabilize above these levels would push the price back into the consolidation range,” the Glassnode report states.

However, the report also notes that above $100,000, there is less sell-side pressure due to fewer coins in that price range. If Bitcoin can overcome resistance around $95,000-$98,000, it could enter a relatively clear path toward new price discovery.

Friday’s US jobs report also impacted market sentiment. Non-farm payrolls grew by 177,000 in April, slightly above expectations, while unemployment ticked higher to 4.2%.

The data initially sparked optimism, with Bitcoin testing $98,000 late Friday. However, sentiment quickly shifted as bond yields climbed, with the US 10-year yield rising above 4.3%.

This reinforced concerns that borrowing costs may remain high for longer, pressuring Bitcoin, which has increasingly traded in line with equities and other macro-sensitive assets.

Oil markets added another layer of pressure. Prices fell sharply after OPEC+ announced it would accelerate its return of production, adding 411,000 barrels per day to global supply in June.

This move dampened sentiment across commodity markets, though gold bucked the trend with prices climbing above $3,250 per ounce as traders sought traditional safe havens.

Market participants now look ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision as the next major catalyst. Traders are watching whether Chair Powell will resist rate cut requests or adopt a more balanced approach amid mixed economic signals.

🚨 The Week Ahead: Fed Rate Decision & Big Earnings
📊 Fed rate decision Wednesday – expected to hold at 4.25% – 4.5% despite Trump pressure
💼 Big earnings: Palantir, AMD, Ford, Disney & Uber
📈 S&P 500 $SPY rallying after tariff pressure eases
👀 Markets still pricing 3…
— Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) May 4, 2025

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