TLDR
- ASML lifted its 2026 sales outlook to €44 billion to €45 billion, the third increase this year.
- The ADR rose 1.6% to $1,744.67 in premarket trading, and the Amsterdam listing gained 1.75% to €1,536.
- Q3 net income of €4.96 billion beat the €4.13 billion analysts expected.
- The CEO said planned 2027 and 2028 supply will not fully meet customer demand.
- The CFO said ASML opposes the Match Act, which would bar DUV sales to China.
ASML (ASML) stock moved higher Wednesday after the company lifted its 2026 sales outlook. The ADR rose 1.6% to $1,744.67 in premarket trading.
In Amsterdam, the stock gained 1.75% to €1,536 and at one point traded up more than 2%. The move gave chip stocks a lift after a rough stretch.
ASML now expects 2026 net sales of €44 billion to €45 billion. The prior range was €43 billion to €45 billion.
This is the third guidance increase of the year. The company also expects a full-year gross margin of around 56%.
Third-quarter sales came in at €11.66 billion, with net income of €4.96 billion. Analysts had looked for revenue of €11.63 billion and net income of €4.13 billion.
Customers Want Orders Out to 2030
CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers keep raising their demand forecasts. He tied that to the size and length of AI spending plans.
Some customers now want to place orders for 2029 and 2030. That is a long way out for a machine maker.
Fouquet said planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet demand. ASML is looking at ways to add capacity beyond a planned 30% increase in 2028.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell for a fifth straight session Tuesday. It is down close to 5% in October.
Jefferies said higher 2027 and 2028 numbers were broadly expected. The firm thinks sector multiples will keep shrinking, which limits upside for the stock.
BofA analyst Didier Scemama sees room for price hikes. He says a 5% rise in average selling prices could lift earnings per share gains to around 10%.
Scemama rates the ADRs a Buy with a $2,915 price target. They traded near $1,703 on Tuesday.
China Export Bill Stays in View
ASML expects China to make up about 20% of 2026 sales. It made a similar call for 2025, then sold about a third of its output there.
CFO Roger Dassen said the company opposes the Match Act, which would bar DUV sales to China and servicing of installed machines. He called it a bad idea and said he is optimistic common sense will prevail.
The bill, from Senators Pete Ricketts and Andy Kim, gives the Netherlands and Japan 150 days to match U.S. export rules. China has made up roughly 70% of ASML’s DUV immersion unit sales by volume in recent years.
Gross margin rose to 57.5% in the third quarter from 54% in the second. Sales were up from €9.33 billion, and net income from €2.92 billion.
For the fourth quarter, ASML expects net sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion. It expects a gross margin of around 57%.
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