TLDR
- Rocket Lab reports Q3 results after the close Monday.
- Analysts expect a 7 cent loss on revenue of about $258 million.
- Space Systems, which doesn’t need Neutron, made up 81% of Q2 revenue.
- Neutron’s first flight slipped to 2027, while the $8 billion Iridium deal is set to close by mid-2027.
- The stock sits below its key moving averages, with support near $49.50.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) stock was trading near $53 on Monday, higher on the day, ahead of its third-quarter report. The company reports after the market close.
Analysts expect a loss of 7 cents per share on revenue of about $257.7 million. Rocket Lab guided to $250 million to $265 million for the quarter.
That range would mark roughly 66% growth from a year ago. In the second quarter, the company posted a loss of 8 cents and record revenue of $234.07 million.
The stock is still down 24% this year and 64% below its 2026 high. EPS estimates have slipped 6% in two months, while revenue forecasts have held flat.
The Part Neutron Cannot Touch
Space Systems made up about 81% of second-quarter revenue. That business does not depend on Neutron, so its growth is the number to watch tonight.
Backlog hit a record $2.36 billion at the end of the second quarter, up 137%. More than $1 billion in new contracts followed early in the third quarter.
Electron has flown 99 missions, including 20 in 2026. The cash side is less tidy, with a GAAP operating loss of $57.5 million last quarter.
Neutron’s first flight slipped to 2027 in October after defects were found in carbon composite components. Cantor Fitzgerald expects a debut in the second quarter of 2027.
Several analysts called the delay a timing issue rather than a change in the thesis. Guidance on the new schedule will shape 2027 revenue views.
Wall Street and the Iridium Deal
Of 22 analysts, 18 rate the stock a Buy. The average price target is about $102.
Citizens cut its target to $90 on Oct. 16. KeyBanc lowered its target to $100 and TD Cowen held at $90 on Oct. 15.
Rocket Lab agreed in June to buy Iridium for about $8 billion, with $27 a share in cash plus stock. Iridium stockholders approved the deal in September.
Closing is expected by mid-2027, and the deal should add over $870 million in annual revenue. Rocket Lab has raised about $1.9 billion through an at-the-market sale to help fund it.
The stock trades at 39.7 times sales. It sits below its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and a death cross formed in August.
MACD is below its signal line, which points to cooling momentum. Support sits near $49.50 and resistance near $61, based on technical analysis.
