TLDR
- Shares of Micron declined 5.25% Monday following statements from tech leaders at Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX advocating for slower AI advancement
- Goldman Sachs’ James Schneider anticipates Micron will post “another strong quarter,” projecting Q4 FY26 revenue reaching $51.9 billion
- Analyst consensus forecasts Q4 FY26 EPS of $31.14, a dramatic increase from $3.03 year-over-year, while revenue is projected to climb over 345%
- UBS research indicates approximately 90% of the nearly $1 trillion in AI infrastructure investments expected from 2025-2027 will go toward memory components
- Analysts maintain a Strong Buy rating on MU stock with a consensus price target of $1,563.93, suggesting 69% potential upside
Micron shares tumbled 5.25% to approximately $930.90 during Monday’s trading session, extending previous week losses and erasing September’s accumulated gains. The sharp decline followed weekend statements from leadership at Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX advocating for a deceleration in artificial intelligence development.
Competitor SK Hynix ADRs experienced a similar downturn, falling 6.9% amid the same industry anxieties.
However, Goldman Sachs analyst James Schneider maintains an optimistic stance leading into Micron’s Q4 FY26 earnings announcement, set for September 30. His analysis suggests the memory chip manufacturer will deliver “another strong quarter,” pointing to persistent supply-demand imbalances in the memory market.
Schneider has increased his financial projections prior to the earnings release. His updated forecast calls for Q4 FY26 revenue of $51.9 billionāroughly 3% higher than Street consensusāalongside EPS of $32.54 and gross margin reaching 87.3%.
The Street’s consensus estimate for Q4 FY26 EPS sits at $31.14, representing a substantial leap from $3.03 during the corresponding period last year. Revenue projections indicate growth exceeding 345% to $50.42 billion, fueled by artificial intelligence infrastructure demand and elevated memory chip prices.
Key Focus Areas According to Goldman Sachs
Schneider highlighted that market participants are monitoring two critical factors: Micron‘s ability to preserve or expand its approximately 20% market share in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and potential announcements regarding new strategic partnerships featuring advantageous pricing arrangements.
The analyst’s calendar year 2026 revenue and EPS projections exceed consensus estimates by 1% and 3%, respectively. He anticipates Micron will provide guidance indicating low-teens sequential revenue growth for Q1 FY27.
While optimistic about near-term performance, Schneider maintains a Hold rating on MU with a $1,100 price target, describing the risk-reward scenario as balanced. He also raised concerns about longer-term competitive pressures from capacity expansions by rivals, especially manufacturers based in China.
What Triggered the Share Price Decline
Monday’s selloff was triggered by a series of AI safety-focused statements. Leadership from Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX issued public remarks throughout the weekend calling for either a pause or deceleration in AI technological advancement.
For Micron in particular, any indication of reduced AI infrastructure investment represents a significant headwind. UBS analysis suggests that roughly 90% of the approximately $1 trillion increase in AI capital expenditure anticipated between 2025 and 2027 is allocated specifically for memory technology.
UBS economist Arend Kapyteyn projects AI capital spending will approach nearly $1 trillion this year, escalating to approximately $1.4 trillion by 2027, with memory costs claiming an expanding portion.
Importantly, no major AI company has actually implemented capital spending reductions. The Trump administration remains supportive of data-center expansion initiatives, and Anthropic itself is reportedly advancing with IPO preparations that could establish a $2 trillion valuation.
Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO at Laffer Tengler Investments, disclosed she leveraged the pullback to increase her Micron holdings, emphasizing that the data center construction pipeline remains robust.
MU stock has surged 224% year-to-date and climbed more than sixfold over the trailing 12 months.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
