Key Takeaways
- Truist Securities upgraded HIMS price target from $27 to $32 while keeping a Hold rating
- 2026 U.S. GLP-1 revenue projection increased to $1.2 billion, compared to $802 million anticipated for 2025
- Compounded GLP-1 revenue ($625M) projected to surpass branded prescription revenue ($578M) in 2026
- Shares of HIMS finished Tuesday’s session at $31.75, gaining 2%, with a 13.5% climb over the past five trading days
- Analyst forecasts margin expansion in both compounded and branded GLP-1 categories during the second half of 2026
Shares of Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) advanced 2% to close at $31.75 on Tuesday after Truist Securities revised its financial projections for the telehealth provider, incorporating insights from proprietary payment card analytics and second-quarter 2026 earnings data.
Hims & Hers Health, Inc., HIMS
Jailendra Singh, an analyst at Truist, maintained his Hold rating on the stock while increasing the price target from $27 to $32.
The investment firm has adjusted its 2026 U.S. GLP-1 revenue projection upward to $1.2 billion, representing an increase from its previous forecast of $1.14 billion and substantially higher than the $802 million expected for 2025.
According to Truist’s analysis, weight-loss products are anticipated to account for approximately 40% of the company’s total annual revenue in 2026. The firm’s full-year revenue projection of $3.159 billion falls within the lower portion of management’s guidance range of $3.1 billion to $3.3 billion.
In a notable adjustment to its previous forecast, Truist now anticipates that compounded GLP-1 medications will generate higher revenue than branded alternatives. The firm projects $625 million from compounded formulations, marginally exceeding the $578 million expected from branded prescription drugs.
This represents a reversal from Truist’s prior model, which had forecasted branded prescriptions as the dominant revenue contributor.
Singh attributes this forecast revision to two primary factors: better-than-anticipated customer retention rates in the compounded medication segment and a deceleration in new subscriber acquisition for branded products.
“Any incremental improvement in retention should be beneficial to HIMS overall revenue and profitability,” Singh wrote.
Profitability Trajectory
Truist anticipates significant margin enhancement during the latter half of 2026. The firm projects adjusted EBITDA margins for compounded prescriptions to reach 18.5%, representing an improvement from the 15.5% recorded in Q2. For branded medications, margins are expected to climb to 16.5%, a substantial increase from the 5% reported in the second quarter.
Breaking down the branded revenue composition, Truist estimates that approximately 55%, or $320 million, represents the actual medication costs, while the remaining 45% derives from subscriber membership fees.
The company delivered Q2 revenue of $753 million, representing 40% year-over-year growth and exceeding analyst consensus estimates. However, it reported a per-share loss of $0.37, wider than Wall Street had projected.
During the second-quarter earnings conference call, CFO Yemi Okupe identified the March rollout of expanded branded weight-loss product offerings as a “key driver” behind quarterly revenue growth.
Wall Street Perspectives
Analyst sentiment on HIMS remains divided. Needham elevated its price target to $42, highlighting robust Q2 performance and a strategic collaboration with Novo Nordisk. Canaccord Genuity maintained its Buy rating alongside a $40 price objective. Meanwhile, Barclays reduced its target from $39 to $35, expressing concerns about margin compression.
HIMS has delivered 28% revenue expansion with a gross profit margin of 69.5%, and the analyst community generally anticipates the company will achieve profitability within the current fiscal year.
The stock has appreciated 13.5% during the previous five trading sessions. Truist’s proprietary card transaction data indicates that retention rates among current branded medication subscribers remain solid.
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