Key Takeaways
- SPCX shares declined more than 1% in pre-market hours Thursday following the expiration of lockup restrictions on 319 million shares
- A previous unlock of 911 million shares on August 6 surprisingly resulted in a 6% stock price increase
- Trading patterns reveal SpaceX shares demonstrate minimal correlation with the Magnificent Seven tech giants, functioning instead as a broader market sentiment indicator
- Wall Street analysts maintain optimistic outlooks with a consensus price target of $232.35, suggesting potential gains exceeding 66%
- Projections indicate approximately 40% of SpaceX’s shares could trade freely by year’s end
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) declined more than 1% during pre-market hours Thursday, trading at $137.60, as lockup restrictions expired on an additional 319 million shares.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The expiration allows early-stage investors and company employees to liquidate their positions, introducing additional shares into the public market. This event arrives approximately two weeks following a substantially larger unlock involving roughly 911 million shares on August 6.
Interestingly, the previous unlock event didn’t precipitate widespread selling pressure. Contrary to expectations, SPCX stock actually gained over 6% during that session, demonstrating that lockup expirations don’t necessarily correlate with selling activity.
Thursday’s unlock accounts for approximately 7% of shares currently subject to trading restrictions. Market participants are monitoring whether this event will produce different results.
Additional unlocks remain on the horizon. Another 319 million shares are anticipated to become available in September, followed by subsequent releases in coming months. Current estimates suggest that by December’s conclusion, roughly 40% of all SpaceX shares could be available for unrestricted trading.
The company experienced a robust public market debut, finishing its initial trading session at $161.11āapproximately 19% higher than its $135 IPO price. Shares subsequently reached a post-listing peak of $225.64 before experiencing a significant correction following its inaugural quarterly earnings announcement, declining below $105.
Understanding SpaceX’s Trading Characteristics
The shares have rebounded from those depressed levels and posted approximately 2% gains across the previous five sessions. However, SPCX continues trading substantially below its post-IPO high watermark.
DataTrek’s Jessica Rabe conducted detailed analysis examining SPCX’s trading behavior relative to comparable equities. Her findings revealed unexpected patterns. SpaceX demonstrates virtually no correlation with the Magnificent Seven technology behemoths, despite operating as a trillion-dollar enterprise with AI infrastructure and data facilities.
The correlation coefficient with the Mag Seven registers at merely 0.28. By contrast, Apple’s correlation with the S&P 500 approximates 0.7. SPCX has even exhibited negative correlations with Amazon and Meta.
Rather, SpaceX functions more as a barometer for overall market risk appetite. During periods of positive sentiment, investors accumulate shares. When uncertainty emerges, they reduce exposure.
The stock also demonstrates strongest correlations with fellow space sector companies including Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS).
“SpaceX doesn’t yet trade like a clean proxy for any single investment theme,” Rabe wrote. “Six weeks in and one earnings report into public life, the market still hasn’t decided what SpaceX is.”
Wall Street’s Perspective
Notwithstanding recent price weakness, Wall Street analysts maintain positive outlooks on the stock. Clear Street analyst Brian Dobson reaffirmed his Buy rating with a $217 price objective, highlighting domestic manufacturing capabilities and secure supply chains as strategic differentiators.
UBS analyst John Hodulik similarly maintained his Buy rating with a $210 target price. He emphasized long-term expansion opportunities across Starlink and complementary technology ventures, including potential growth from Starlink Mobile and the V3 satellite constellation buildout.
According to TipRanks data, SPCX holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 24 Buy recommendations, six Hold ratings, and two Sell ratings. The consensus price target sits at $232.35, representing potential upside exceeding 66% from present trading levels.
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